FOR THURSDAY: (2/2) Trade waiting on employment numbers on Friday. The day after FOMC is more often down for stocks so sideways to lower is possible, although any good news would be exaggerated to the upside by strong cycles. Will exit short dollars on Thursday if the market cannot fall apart overnight.Continue reading
Will start adding corn shorts
FOR THURSDAY: (2/2) Our patience paid off as the friendly cycle finally gave the market a lift. We will use this rally to starting adding corn shorts and may have to be more patient with beans. Cycles are more clearly lower Friday and Sunday and we’ll make sure that the grains markets do not get too far ahead of themselves.
Markets overdone going into FOMC announcement
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/1) Presidential whiplash is not going to make trading easy for weeks or months. A tweet here, an executive order there and a counter coup defiant stand over there are making the news fun to watch again. When it starts happening with North Korea and China, we had better get our helmets. Currencies are the craziest of the bunch. Markets are overdone going into the FOMC announcement and given daily surprises, it’s hard to take positions home unless you really have a clear pattern and cycle. Still, it looks like higher stocks and notes for Wednesday, lower gold, recovering dollars.Continue reading
Will trade fade the cattle report?
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/1) Still waiting for bounces into Thursday to short grains and so far they are cooperating. Cattle inventory was bearish as expected but does it become another cattle on fade report? Cycles suggest a recovery into Friday for those wanting to fight the new fundamentals. Hogs should top out within a few days and we can be short until at least the 9th if not longer.Continue reading
S & P should complete a bounce
FOR TUESDAY: (1/31) Congestive chop in large ranges as we head to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and then Bank of Japan Fed. S & P should complete a bounce and come off a bit on Tuesday but skeptical of a new low. Everything else looks sideways.Continue reading
Cattle may fill their gaps and set up March Feeder hedges
FOR TUESDAY: (1/31) The weather play for South American grains is over now. Markets have issued clearer daily chart sell signals for grains but are oversold and we need a recovery into Thursday or early Friday to have better risk/reward for selling. Cattle may fill their gaps if we’re lucky and set up March Feeder hedges. Not sure the game is over for live cattle yet.Continue reading
S&P cycles look positive on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (1/30) Cycles look positive on Monday for additional upward action for stocks but the market may still be tiring before Wednesday’s FOMC. We have completed our outlook on the 1st quarter and year and it’s now available.Continue reading
Hogs should hold up until at least Wednesday
Cycles still suggest that grains should top out the first few days of the week and turn lower into Friday and probably early next week. Cattle on Feed report was negative and there probably is a little room for it to fall yet but could be a “cattle on fade” situation, as we think they will buy dips for the rest of the week. Hogs should hold up until at least Wednesday.Continue reading
Not expecting any major reversals on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (1/27) Cycles look more volatile with profit-taking setting in for Friday overall but not expecting any major reversals or seeing any reason to change our long stock/short gold/long dollar orientation. Lots of reports but not sure they’ll tell us much as what do old reports mean when you have all this Trump hope.Continue reading
Cycles early next week suggest recoveries for grains
FOR FRIDAY: (1/27) A number of cycles early next week suggest recoveries for grains and livestock so we’re reluctant to press shorts. Cattle may have a big fall on Friday and then that will set up a buy for next week. Hogs look like they topped but have a recovery next week. Without a secondary high for grains, there’s nothing to sell. Not likely to do much on Friday but we do have a lot of set-ups by Monday for next week.Continue reading