Cycles are likely to be more erratic on Tuesday and the market is already behaving strangely with new anxiety with Europe, Italy and Greece and France. We have to go with our original forecast for the week but some markets are a bit out of sync. Chalking it up for a typical post weekend hangover from the Super Bowl and back to business as usual on Tuesday?Continue reading
Grain cycles look lower into Friday
FOR TUESDAY: (2/7) Grains are waiting for USDA report on Thursday but cycles look lower into Friday so not thinking the report will go well and we should use any rallies to get short. Cattle continue to act toppy and suggest a sale and we’re top-picking hogs here and may exit by early Wednesday if they can’t break.Continue reading
Favoring short gold, long dollars next week
FOR MONDAY: (2/6) Hard to take too much home over the weekend given wild tweets from Trump, saber-rattling with Iran and China back on the offensive raising interest rates. We still feel good about short gold next week and long dollars but don’t expect any easy trading in Feb and the wheels will start coming off soon probably by the week of Feb. 12.Continue reading
Weather could give grains, meats one more push up on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (2/6) Counting on the weather to give grains and meats one more push up on Monday and it has enough of a chance to wait for. Still, weather is fickle so be prepared Sunday night if it doesn’t look good and if you have urgent needs.Continue reading
Higher dollars, lower gold into at least Sunday
FOR FRIDAY: (2/3) Another employment report day. The dollar is bid with a great number expected but will Amazon earnings disappoint the party? We have a bias toward higher dollars and lower gold into at least Sunday with a bounce Monday and then generally prices for gold into Feb. 11. That would suggest a larger bounce for at least a week for the dollar and key support has held.Continue reading
Cattle still look higher one more day
FOR FRIDAY: (2/3) Grain cycles look weak on Friday but we’re hoping that SA weather will keep them sideways and that a final high will come in over the weekend for better sales. Cattle still look higher one more day and hogs lower on Friday.Continue reading
Day after FOMC is often down
FOR THURSDAY: (2/2) Trade waiting on employment numbers on Friday. The day after FOMC is more often down for stocks so sideways to lower is possible, although any good news would be exaggerated to the upside by strong cycles. Will exit short dollars on Thursday if the market cannot fall apart overnight.Continue reading
Will start adding corn shorts
FOR THURSDAY: (2/2) Our patience paid off as the friendly cycle finally gave the market a lift. We will use this rally to starting adding corn shorts and may have to be more patient with beans. Cycles are more clearly lower Friday and Sunday and we’ll make sure that the grains markets do not get too far ahead of themselves.
Markets overdone going into FOMC announcement
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/1) Presidential whiplash is not going to make trading easy for weeks or months. A tweet here, an executive order there and a counter coup defiant stand over there are making the news fun to watch again. When it starts happening with North Korea and China, we had better get our helmets. Currencies are the craziest of the bunch. Markets are overdone going into the FOMC announcement and given daily surprises, it’s hard to take positions home unless you really have a clear pattern and cycle. Still, it looks like higher stocks and notes for Wednesday, lower gold, recovering dollars.Continue reading
Will trade fade the cattle report?
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/1) Still waiting for bounces into Thursday to short grains and so far they are cooperating. Cattle inventory was bearish as expected but does it become another cattle on fade report? Cycles suggest a recovery into Friday for those wanting to fight the new fundamentals. Hogs should top out within a few days and we can be short until at least the 9th if not longer.Continue reading