FOR MONDAY: (6/25) Corn is the most vulnerable to the upside because of pollination, and that is starting to issue a buy signal. Some hope for grain bulls if we get hotter temperatures in July and weird weather patterns. Markets are so beat up they really have to factor in pollination so the path of least resistance is up. Market looks lower Monday/Tuesday but the should come to life. Grains do look higher the first week of July overall so the worst may be over if the market can do secondary lows this week and offer a light hedge buy in case of pollination. Cattle on Feed was neutral to bearish and now the market could even be lower into Wednesday. Hogs are oversold and may have a chance to rally with a 5-wave pattern just about complete.Continue reading
Corn most likely to bounce
FOR FRIDAY: (6/22) Corn is the most vulnerable to the upside because of pollination, and that is starting to issue a buy signal. Wet weather is starting to reduce yields. Getting closer to Cattle on Feed for Friday, and that can get dicey. We hope we get enough downward momentum to make money on our shorts.Continue reading
29-day grains cycle weak on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (6/21) Thursdays are often lower for grains and the 29-day cycle is weak. There should be a day-trade sale in the morning, and it could turn into a secondary low into Monday. Corn is the most vulnerable to the upside because of pollination, and that is starting to issue a buy signal. Getting closer to Cattle on Feed for Friday, and that can get dicey. We hope we get enough downward momentum to make money on our shorts.Continue reading
Chart action suggests start of a climax for grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/20) Chart action suggests the start of a climax, as fundamental value was hit and exceeded. Some key numbers were hit and big bounces off the lows happened. Grains look higher on Wednesday but secondary lows are likely into Monday and then short-covering before USDA stocks report next week.Continue reading
Grain cycles suggest a bounce for a few days
FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) There’s slight improvement in the U.S. corn crop. As of Sunday, the USDA National Ag Statistics Service says the crop is 78 percent good to excellent. That’s a percentage point better than a week ago. The condition of the soybean crop is down a percentage point from last week at 73 percent good to excellent. Ninety-five percent of U.S. winter wheat is headed; 27 percent is harvested. Winter wheat is 39 percent good to excellent, while the SPRING wheat crop is 78 good to excellent.
JULY CORN
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/19) Corn closed under the key 360 area and it will be difficult to close above it now even if we get a 2-day bounce. Will the trade buy the fact of an improved crop? Cycles suggest a bounce here for a few days before a move to 349.75 and 343. A 3-wave bounce now projects 368. Not trusting this market but the worst may be over for a few days. If you’re still bearish, need to sell bounces to 368- 372. We will keep some corn hedges. A pollination scare is going to be needed to save this market but eventually this should be a wet year and the crop should be fine. We’re going to switch to Dec. corn soon and it’s 21.5 over so start watching it.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Retracing higher Tuesday/Wednesday; lower Thursday; mixed Friday; lower into June 25.
Grains oversold, due for a 2-3-day bounce
FOR MONDAY: (6/18) Will Chicago traders trade the experience of 90’s over the weekend or look ahead to a break in the weather mid-week? Markets are oversold and due for a 2-3-day bounce but then looks lower into June 25. Hogs may retrace a day but look higher much of next week, as does cattle.Continue reading
Corn close to 360 key support
FOR FRIDAY: (6/15) If you wait long enough, your numbers will come, and we all got faked out by Tuesday’s report action that triggered buy signals and then they flushed everyone down the drain. Absurd target from earlier in the week came on beans at 923 and corn is close to 360 key support and secondary low.Continue reading
Beans in a death spiral
FOR THURSDAY: (6/14) We have looked for a recovery into Monday but it may be in 3 waves. Not sure stocks numbers are good enough to negate excellent corn but oversold conditions will allow a bounce. Wheat retraced much more than makes us happy and beans are in a death spiral but closer to extended target of 923.Continue reading
Oversold conditions may allow for a grains bounce
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/13) We have looked for a recovery into Monday but it may be in 3 waves. Not sure stocks numbers are good enough to negate excellent corn but oversold conditions may allow a bounce. Beans look terrible and wheat is crazier than I’ve seen in years so not going to touch it on Wednesday.Continue reading
Still open to much lower grain prices
FOR TUESDAY: (6/12) Another USDA report day and they are often turning points. That’s particularly so this time with very oversold conditions and cycles suggesting a recovery into June 18. There‘s reason to take profit on shorts and hedges and then we will re-evaluate by June 18. We’re still open to much lower prices, as July wheat needs to go to 485-6 and July corn to 340-1 and July beans could hit 900. If we put in June lows, the market has a great chance of recovering if heat hits pollination, and some weather threat is likely.Continue reading