Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR MONDAY: (2/13) New South American weather forecasts will impact the Sunday open but even if they are very bullish, we think that overbought conditions will lead to the market fading the surge. Still we have to pay attention to the close on March corn over 375 and wheat finally hitting 450 which is a weekly chart, 4^th wave target. Cycles should turn lower for cattle on hogs on Monday

Grain recovery into at least June 18 likely

FOR MONDAY: (6/11) Oversold conditions from last week should lead to a recovery into at least June 18 for grains. Short-covering should start sometime by Monday night at the latest, and the trade is concerned about the USDA report on Tuesday, which has to have pleasant surprises given oversold conditions.Continue reading

Beans hit extended target of 973

FOR FRIDAY: (6/8) Would think that end of the week short-covering might set in ahead of the USDA report on Tuesday. Beans hit extended target of 973 and corn not far from lower target. Wheat failed at a key number near 537 and came off quite a bit. We always worry about Friday hedging pressure for July wheat this time of year, and it’s probably a sale.Continue reading

Grains looking lower into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (6/7) Thursday and Friday could be lower, and patterns to the downside don’t look complete. Still, charts look terrible and the chances for new highs will depend on whether dry comes with hot; our forecast has been for above normal rains this year. The outlook the next few weeks is not supporting hot and dry yet. No rush to cover shorts on grains.Continue reading

Expecting short-covering on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/6) We’re expecting short-covering on Wednesday but Thursday and Friday could be lower, and patterns to the downside don’t look complete. Still, charts look terrible and the chances for new highs will really depend on whether dry comes with hot; our forecast has been for above normal rains this year. The outlook the next few weeks is not supporting hot and dry yet.Continue reading

Charts look terrible

FOR TUESDAY: (6/5) We’re open to staying short another day but not expecting that much more if you’re still short. Expecting that above-normal temperatures for June will start short-covering soon and may keep the market up for a bit from oversold conditions. Still, charts look terrible and the chances for new highs will really depend on whether dry comes with hot; our forecast has been for above normal rains this year.Continue reading

Climax low for grains in next few days

FOR MONDAY: (6/4) Cooler weather the next few days may dampen drought fears even if temperatures are scheduled to go up later. Still, traders go with what they tangibly feel so the market should keep eroding but reach a climax low in the next few days for grains.Continue reading

Grain cycles look higher on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (6/1) Grain cycles look higher on Friday with lower action into Tuesday of next week. Downward patterns didn’t complete and we’ll hold shorts a few more days. Going to leave markets alone before the next wild weather report emerges – or not. First of the month fund buying should kick in and lift cattle for a few days but too hard to play after we got beat up on Thursday.Continue reading

Grains still look lower on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (5/31) Grains still look lower on Thursday with short-covering possible o Friday. We still have to do research on next week but the market looks like it could have a sharp rebound if new weather comes into play so stay on guard.Continue reading

Cattle looking up into COF

FOR THURSDAY: (5/24 no change) We’re concerned about thinning holiday conditions already in the cattle markets, and it’s always difficult to take a grain position out over a long holiday weekend. We have a bias toward lower grains into Thursday with Friday maybe being position squaring. Cattle are already looking ahead toward the COF report on Friday. It looks like cattle could be up into the report and be lower after Memorial Day. Grains may also be up on Friday and have some follow-through into Monday night but it’s always the hardest day to play. We see any rallies on Monday night followed by massive selling when the trade comes back from the holidays. Between the China ping-pong trade match and weather markets, we just have to be as flat as possible.Continue reading

Bias toward lower grains into Thursday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/23) We’re concerned about thinning holiday conditions already in the cattle markets, and it’s always difficult to take a grain position out over a long holiday weekend. We have a bias toward lower grains into Thursday with Friday maybe being position squaring. Cattle are already looking ahead toward the COF report on Friday. It looks like cattle could be up into the report and be lower after Memorial Day. Grains may also be up on Friday and have some follow-through into Monday night but it’s always the hardest day to play.Continue reading