FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Despite the strong Sunday rallies, the smart trade knew to sell. Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday and probably Wednesday. Crop plantings were better than expected and not likely to provide much relief. The issue may be how much more corn get in Michigan and Wisconsin.Continue reading
Beans seem safest to sell
FOR MONDAY: (5/21) Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday and probably Wednesday, and they may not have far to go after strong rallies. Beans seem safest to sell but corn failed to issue a buy signal. Can wheat carry the rest of the complex higher or will the forecasts change over the weekend and overbought conditions lead to a pullback? Not going to sell wheat but can get away with beans shorts. Meats look higher this week, but Monday can be volatile, and it’s always hard to buy this early-week dips.Continue reading
Grain cycles point lower on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (5/18) Starting to sense that grain cycles are more likely to be lower on Friday, but we could get a surprise over the weekend. Have to get short in case something bigger happens to the market. Cattle should continue short-covering.Continue reading
Grains, meats too oversold to sell
FOR THURSDAY (5/17): Thursdays aren’t usually kind to grains or meats but there‘s a friendly cycle into mid-day that may allow a recovery. Meats and grains are too oversold to sell and if new lows come early, the trade may short-cover.Continue reading
Grains look higher on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY (5/16): Grains may have bottomed for the week and look higher on Wednesday and probably into Friday. Meats are due for at least a one-day bounce. Still, grain and hog markets could yield unexpected surprises on Wednesday due to a surprise cycle so watch these markets carefully on Wednesday.Continue reading
Major cycle peaks into late Tuesday, early Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY (5/15): Major cycle for many markets peaks into late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and we should bounce out of there into Thursday for many markets. Enjoy several days of above-average temperatures across much of the central U.S. this week, with a fair amount of rain also expected over the next three days, with the best chances for significant accumulation in the eastern Corn Belt during this time. Parts of the Southern Plains could also receive some much-needed rainfall later this week.Continue reading
Hogs, cattle look lower on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (5/14) Grains are oversold and may open lower on Sunday but then recover in short-covering for 1-2 sessions. May still be lower into Wednesday for a wash-out low. Hogs and cattle look lower on Monday also but then should recover. We are open to buying meats on Monday for rallies into Wednesday.Continue reading
Mixed signals for grains
FOR FRIDAY: (5/11) Mixed signals but we are more inclined to think the market will break into the weekend and can stay short grains. Cattle and hogs look sideways but overall are looking better for a buy into next week but we need to pick our spots carefully.Continue reading
Have to leave grains alone
FOR THURSDAY: (5/10) Grain cycles are mixed, with many suggesting a recovery into Friday but we‘ve seen them invert so often that we like to stick with patterns. If wheat completed 5 waves down to 500.50 and pulled corn down for a divergent low, then we could get a recovery into Friday. Have to leave grains alone and the trade may leave them rather congestive before USDA report.Continue reading
Grain cycles mixed
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/9) Grain cycles are mixed with many suggesting a recovery into Friday but we have seen them invert so often that we like to stick with patterns. If wheat completed 5 waves down to 500.50 and pulled corn down for a divergent low on Wednesday then we could get a recovery into Friday. We have a low-confidence trade tonight. Have to leave grains alone and the trade may leave them rather congestive before USDA.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/9) We’re open to a larger congestive retracement up to 1031. We’re not in a rush to sell again nor do we think the market will run away to the upside, and we’re going to do one more sell looking for 982 at some point. Expect a congestive mess for now. The chance for short-covering the rest of the week is strong before the USDA report. Support at 1001 with bounces this week going to 1021 and 1027.
OVERALL: The most bearish pattern would project a 3-wave fall to 982.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways to lower Wednesday.