FOR TUESDAY: (5/8) Cycles are mixed into the end of the week but more inclined to expect a negative report reaction. Market is oversold from Monday so Turnaround Tuesday should give us a chance to get short if you want to risk it into the report.Continue reading
Grains look lower on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (5/7) Grains look lower on Monday and recovering on Tuesday and then lower on Wednesday with the trade waiting on the USDA report on Thursday. Cycles are mixed into the end of the week but more inclined to see a negative report reaction. If wheat doesn’t get enough rain in drought-stricken areas, that will be a game changer and that will impact Monday. At the moment, they are looking for a bit more rain.Continue reading
China optimism may bleed into morning action
FOR FRIDAY: (5/4) China optimism did us in and we should have just stood aside. White House Economist Mark Calabria commented after the first day of trade discussions in China that he was “optimistic” and that US has “discreetly” given China a list of asks and that the day ended “pretty positive.” However, what algos clearly ignored is that Calabria concluded on a slightly more somber tone, saying that “the tough part in the talks is ensuring China keeps its promises.” And that was enough to ignite the momentum into the green for the day. We think China optimism will bleed over into the morning but a reality check may hit later in the day and knock the market down. Hard to play these news-sensitive days.Continue reading
Cycles overall seem weak
FOR THURSDAY: (5/3) Willing to sell the weaker beans and cattle and hogs if we can get filled. Cycles overall seem weak but not fighting beans or corn.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/3) Bearish RSI divergence on the double-top on July but some patterns now project 539. Can’t sell a roaring bull until we get a reversal. The 29/30-day cycles are positive and have to leave it alone. Market needs to start taking out 515 to turn bearish.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Next key swing low into May 7.
Wheat tour got grains going
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/2) The wheat tour got grains going, and even though corn has no reason to be up here, it‘s following wheat. We usually don’t like to sell grains on Wednesday and will assume slightly higher prices. Open to sales on Thursday if patterns come in. Cattle and hogs should bounce a day but then are sales.Continue reading
Have to sell the pattern completion on wheat
FOR TUESDAY: (5/1) Wheat prices saw some contracts up double digits on drought concerns for some winter wheat production and planting delays for some spring wheat production. Wheat and beans opened higher in the Monday night session, with wheat having the strongest gains. Have to sell the pattern completion on wheat in the 519-20 region. Beans are too oversold to chase and we’ll leave them alone.Continue reading
Better chance for higher grains on Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (4/30) Friday’s spurt on grains wasn’t shocking and we had suggested taking profits on short beans. Patterns had suggested that wheat needed new highs, and it appears that has a good chance. We would think that month-end profit-taking could hit on Monday and we’re not inclined to chase. We feel better about higher prices for early Tuesday but wonder if that may be it, as corn and wheat are very close to pattern completions. Buy pullbacks on cattle for Monday and should see higher prices into Wednesday.Continue reading
Cattle should bounce
FOR FRIDAY: (4/27) The 29-day cycle is weak for grains and we favor lower prices into Sunday and maybe Monday. Cattle should bounce and didn’t fall much on Thursday, and hogs may hold and bounce a few days but are in trouble. Month end-position squaring by funds will distort things into Monday.Continue reading
Grains a bit overdone
FOR THURSDAY: (4/26) Grains are a bit overdone and we would expect prices to come off from highs into Thursday into early next week into Monday. Still, wheat might get a bit absurd despite no real news pushing it here. Cattle should pull back, and that pullback may last into Monday. Hogs are higher for a few days and in case they get wild, we should get something on.Continue reading
Grains should go up one more day
OR WEDNESDAY: (4/25) Grains should go up one more day but we’re skeptical about too much more. Cattle came off sharply with the US stock market and given that we see stocks down again on Wednesday, we won’t buy, but if they have a weak bounce, we probably will sell on Thursday.Continue reading