Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR MONDAY: (4/9) Too much news over the weekend to put in too many orders. USDA report on Tuesday will get position squaring going. The USDA report is often a turn for the month, and grain cycles look lower from Wednesday into April 16-17. Cattle are still on the ropes until Tuesday but might bounce off of limit down on Monday. Rallies on hogs for Monday should be sold.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (4/6) More trade wars announced tonight are likely to unnerve overbought grains and meats now, so chances are they’re a sale and then we’ll see where we are on Monday. If grains pull back a few days and haven’t hit upper targets, then there might be a buy if you want to gamble before the USDA report on Tuesday. We have a bias for a positive reaction and continue to look at pullbacks into April 16 as providing the best possible entry. We’re completing research and this will be anything but a normal weather year, and that means grains will stay bid. Late plantings are a concern but it’s still too early to worry and hot and dry problems this summer may finally create a weather market—the double-edged sword.

FOR THURSDAY: (4/5) Knee-jerk reactions on very bad news can create major lows and buying opportunities and the smart money was buying the dip last night and the movement was exaggerated. While grains may retrace a few days now into Friday, they look higher early next week and then we have the USDA report coming. Cattle hit key numbers that we had projected the last few days very closely and they also look done and hogs recovered also so the worst may be over.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/4) Cycles are complicated for Wednesday and patterns are mixed enough that we will leave the markets alone. Cattle clearly have at least one more rung to go but harder to chase. Cycles into Wednesday/Thursday have often been dramatically bearish but once in a while they invert, and the 29/30-day cycles for grains are higher the next few days so we’re feeling confused as to how to take new positions. We can’t totally ignore the USDA report and yet the market is often vulnerable in April with competition from South America. Only cold and snow weather delays for planting are a plus.

FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Mixed data. Spillover from the stock market was ugly, and that may hurt the market into mid-week. Cycles are mixed enough and action erratic that we have a low-confidence trade but will hang on. Cattle may bounce 1-2 days and set up new shorts, and hogs are in trouble for at least two more days but hard to play limit down moves.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (4/2) First-of-the-month fund buying is always an issue and 3-day weekend volatility is always exaggerated. We have learned to avoid trading these post holidays and let the dust settle.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (3/29) Not planning a lot of trading before or after the reports on Thursday or into Monday. Three-day weekends are very volatile. We have outlined patterns and cycles below and you are welcome to trade but time for a rest with the Easter/Passover holiday.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (3/26) Grain cycles remain complicated and USDA report on Thursday may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually do not like to play this congestive week before the report. Cattle on Feed was bearish but the trade may fade it as the market is very oversold as is the hog market.Continue reading