FOR FRIDAY: (3/23) Mixed cycles into Friday. The 29/30-day cycles are friendly for grains, and logic says short-covering will hit cattle before COF on Friday. That makes most sense to us. There is a bearish cycle that peaks into late Friday but could lead to some more downward action, but we’re going to favor some optimism and short-covering for at least 1-1.5 days.Continue reading
Mixed cycles into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (3/22) Mixed cycles into Friday. The 29/30-day cycles are friendly for grains, and logic says short-covering will hit cattle before COF on Friday. That makes most sense to us. There is a bearish cycle that peaks into late Friday but could lead to some more downward action, but we’re going to favor some optimism and short-covering for at least 1-1.5 days.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/22) Resistance up to 385.50 and 388.50. Cycles are mixed, and lower support never came in at 378.75 so nothing to so in the middle. It’s a scalp buy at 379 and a sale at 388.
Hard to sell corn in 383 region
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/21) Spring is officially here. Cycles are mixed the next few days and the market is very oversold. The lower projections for grains entice to what to sell but need to see 477 on July wheat and better prices on corn if we’re going to sell anymore. Cattle may bounce a day, as may hogs but those markets remain very bearish.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/21) Did not get near 387 for a sale and we may see 378.75 before a recovery to 385 or 388. Will decide in the morning. Hard to sell the 383 region and possible that 387 may come in on Wednesday and then lead to 379. Larger patterns project 375.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Friday.
Too late to chase wheat
FOR TUESDAY: (3/20) Grains fell hard and we missed shorts on beans and it’s late to chase wheat, and corn got dragged under the bus with the two of them. Rains in the U.S. Plains and in Argentina triggered sharp cuts in grain prices to start the week, with winter wheat, spring wheat, soybeans and soymeal all taking double-digit losses. Corn futures were also down nearly 2% on “spillover weakness,” despite another positive round of export data from UDSA.Continue reading
Not pressing grain sales
FOR FRIDAY: (3/16) Grains continue to be whippy with Chinese trade fears and other craziness happening. Soybean prices saw a double-digit drop Wednesday amid expectations for a huge 2018 U.S. crop, and corn also trended lower, but wheat hung on for some small gains as traders contemplated export data, weather trends, South American crops and more. We’re working on our spring and summer forecasts and hope to publish longer-term overview soon.Continue reading
Grains continue to be whippy
FOR THURSDAY: (3/15) Grains continue to be whippy with Chinese trade fears and other craziness happening. Soybean prices saw a double-digit drop Wednesday amid expectations for a huge 2018 U.S. crop, and corn also trended lower, but wheat hung on for some small gains as traders contemplated export data, weather trends, South American crops and more.Continue reading
Getting out of short grains and going long.
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/14) We looked closely at grain cycles and the most bearish cycles ended last night and most of the cycles into Friday and next Sunday seem friendly. Patterns aren’t done to the downside with beans but definitely getting a bit late to push shorts, and they probably have bottomed already. Getting out of short grains and going long.
MAY FEEDER CATTLE (electronic session ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/14) Not enough of a recovery here but you would think they’ll follow live cattle higher. Resistance at 145.50 is minimum target. Small chance for 141.65 first. We will leave it alone but we do expect a recovery to Monday even if there’s a new low on the current move on Wednesday.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming Wednesday; higher into Monday.
Willing to buy hogs
FOR TUESDAY: (3/13) Not sure the grains will continue much lower past Tuesday or a more congestive pattern may develop. Willing to buy hogs but mixed signals on cattle.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/13) Wheat bounced enough that 500 isn’t likely to come out. Market may be a buy in the morning actually but we’ll see how it acts overnight. Need to do more work around the rest of the month.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Tuesday; recovering Wednesday.
Cattle look higher on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (3/12) Technicals issued strong sell signals for wheat and beans although we had noted them earlier. If we get bounces, we can still sell as a larger pullback is likely to happen now. Cattle look higher on Monday on the technically strong close and hogs are unclear.Continue reading
Grains could hold up into Friday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/7) We looked closely at grain cycles and could see grains holding up into Friday and higher pattern completions coming in. Cattle look lower for a few days and hogs look lower into Thursday. USDA report on Thursday may create sideways action position squaring now. Wild spillover from Financial markets likely also.Continue reading