Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR TUESDAY: (3/6) We looked closely at grain cycles and could see grains holding up into Friday and higher pattern completions coming in. Cattle look lower for a few days and hogs look lower into Thursday.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (3/5) We have a bias for topping grains over the next session and lower action into March 12-13. We do sense that they are very overdone and any shift in bullish weather will lead to massive selling, so be careful. Hogs look lower next week but Monday could be higher and cattle may recover a day and turn lower into Wednesday of next week.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/5) One more push higher will go to at least 397.75 with upper resistance at 401.75 unlikely. Daily chart patterns would suggest a minor fall to max. 389 or 386. Larger patterns project 413 and 422 into the spring but hard to get too excited. We have a bias toward a retracement from March 5- into March 12-13 but aren’t in a rush to sell as this market has remained bid.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Sunday/Monday.

FOR FRIDAY: (3/2) We do sense a completion of bullish grain energy by Sunday or early Monday and then a pullback for at least 5-6 days. Still, this market keeps galloping and July wheat projects 544 and July beans a 1082.50 or 1088, and July corn could get pulled up to 400. Time and price targets may be complete by Monday.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (3/1) Didn’t get our pullback and hard to chase on a Thursday, which is often lower. Market remains very strong so not sure what to do. When these markets start turning into weather markets, pullbacks are minor and sometimes you have to jump. July wheat looks like a buy at 501 and July beans at 1059 and more ideally at 1048.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/28)) March grain first day notice should create some profit-taking there, and that’s why we can’t be long those contracts. Cattle should bounce 1 more day and hogs look terrible technically but may stabilize on Wednesday. End of the month fund profit-taking can distort patterns, cycles and technicals.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (2/27) March grain first day notice should create some profit-taking there, and that’s why we can’t be long those contracts. Cattle should bounce 1-2 days and hogs look terrible technically but may stabilize and bounce on Tuesday.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (2/26) Not sure we learned anything from Friday’s action, with beans making a slight new high on the week but just by a hair get someone’s stop. Market should be sharply lower into Wednesday so that may mean the weather will shift so be protective; it may be that we have to sell a rally into Sunday or Monday morning. Cattle on Feed was considered neutral to bearish but market was a bit oversold going into it. Hogs also look lower for Monday.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (2/23) USDA opened its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum with some 2018 grain acre projections, which includes slightly lower corn and soybean acres this year, with wheat acres an estimated 500,000 acres higher than 2017. No major curveballs were thrown, allowing traders to make small technical adjustments on other market factors. Cycles for grains seem positive on Friday and may peak on Sunday night or early Monday. We need new bullish weather forecasts over the weekend to create a breakout on beans and pull the rest of the complex higher.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (2/22) Grains are often lower on Thursdays, and a pullback may be in order but still could make new highs for beans on Friday and into Sunday. Cattle have a low on Thursday and a recovery on Friday, and hogs are probably a sale by Friday but need to complete research.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/21) Grains reacting to dry SA weather forecasts and probably will be supportive another week and possibly longer. Have to buy grain dips. Meats look like they may be overbought by Tuesday and be a light sale for a few days, and we’ll take profits on short hogs.Continue reading