Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Grains are oversold going into the report and patterns could allow 434 on Dec. wheat and pull corn up and beans are close to a key high. Seasonal pressure till Thanksgiving dominates so we have to use strength to get short. Market looks lower into Friday but then looks like it will bounce early next week. Usually these USDA wash-outs are so steep that the market just crawls out of a deep hole. Cattle and hogs look lower a few more days.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/8) Pre-report congestion may take over the market. Will we have to wait until the report to squeeze out pattern completion to 1003 on beans? Cycles turn weak toward the end of the week and we won’t wait around. May be tough choppy trade here and we may have to step aside until it settles. Oct/Nov. grain trading can be rather boring but inevitably the final push lower to harvest usually comes after the USDA report. We do have to get prepared for last hedges and spec sales this week on grains.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/8) Not sure we’re willing to wait for 1002-3 but China news might even get the market higher to 1010. That’s why we can’t be selling. Keep an eye on markets today, as China has just pledged to import more U.S. soybeans during President Donald Trump’s Beijing visit earlier this week, according to one U.S. industry official. Chinese soybean buyers could sign a letter of intent with the U.S. Soybean Export Council committing to an as-now-undisclosed amount of U.S. soybeans.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Wednesday; lower into Friday.

FOR TUESDAY: (11/7) We may be running out of upward momentum and we can’t stick around too long with grains and action on corn was a failure. Market could hold up another day or two but looks lower into the end of the week.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (11/6) We ‘re open to higher prices Sunday and Monday and then we get pre-USDA report congestion with the next report on Nov. 9. Cattle have a cycle high on Monday and look like a pattern completion is in and may come off the rest of the week from the recent absurd run.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/6) Market hit key resistance at 1000.75 and pulled back. Unless it takes out 975, we won’t get a sell signal and cycles point to a buy early in the week. Still might see 1003.50 or 1010. Will buy Monday if the market behaves on Sunday night.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Sunday/Monday.

FOR FRIDAY: (11/3) Grains held up well and had decent comebacks and that will allow us to remain open to selling better levels later. Cycles are mixed on Friday but we’re open to higher prices Sunday and Monday and then we get pre-USDA report congestion ahead of the Nov. 9 report. Meats should recover some of Thursday’s losses and those markets went too far too fast this week. With end of the week position squaring, we’re going to let the markets settle lower.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/3) No reason to sell beans early. Market hit key resistance at 1000.75 with major resistance at 1003.50 and 1010. Market likely to hold 990 on pullbacks. We will hold out for higher prices into next week. Market held key support at 980. That means that pullbacks have been tame and might allow a
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways Friday; higher Sunday and Monday.

FOR THURSDAY: (11/2) Grains held up well and had decent comebacks and that will allow us to continue to be open to selling better levels later. For now we at least expect a recovery into Friday. Cattle still look higher for at least another few days.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/2) Market held key support at 980. That means that pullbacks have been tame and might allow a move to 100.75 into the end of the week or even higher. Support at 988.50 overnight with resistance up to 1000.75 and 1010. We may consider a buy on Thursday if there’s no downward backlash. Risk/reward on buying is gone and we’ll evaluate in the morning.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Friday.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/1) Sometimes first of the month fund buying can save grains but cycles are pretty weak and deflation continues dominate. At this point we have to see what kind of bounce manifests into Friday if we are lucky for grains. Meat cycles also point higher into Friday and despite parabolic movement, it may not stop.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/1) Cycle lows due on Wednesday and then we’ll see what kind of a bounce can manifest into Friday. Key support really needs to hold at 990 if we’re to have any chance for a decent bounce. Too late to sell the last day down.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) Our sense that we couldn’t sell oversold conditions. We’re approaching end of the month fund position squaring by Tuesday and rollover from Nov. to Jan. beans. We have a bias toward lower grains into Wednesday but can get weird aberrations on position squaring by funds. Given very oversold conditions on grains at key numbers, we have to be patient about selling. Meats are starting to smell winter and cold weather and that’s a reminder that seasonal lows may be in.

DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/31) We’ve been too slow getting orders out. Key support at 348 and only a bounce to 352 might inspire us to get short this market. Major support at 340.50. We’re running out of time but have to be patient. Support is at 344.25 if we get a break below 347.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) Our sense that we couldn’t sell oversold conditions. We’re approaching end of the month fund position squaring by Tuesday and rollover from Nov. to Jan. beans. We have a bias toward lower grains into Wednesday but can get weird aberrations on position squaring by funds. Given very oversold conditions on grains at key numbers, we have to be patient about selling. Meats are starting to smell winter and cold weather and that’s a reminder that seasonal lows may be in.

DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/31) We’ve been too slow getting orders out. Key support at 348 and only a bounce to 352 might inspire us to get short this market. Major support at 340.50. We’re running out of time but have to be patient. Support is at 344.25 if we get a break below 347.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

FOR MONDAY: (10/23) Grains broke hard before weekend harvest and cycle lows are due on Sunday and the rest of next week is higher. Wheat close to key 423 support and corn close to 440.50, and beans should hold 972. Beans have the best chance of a new high if you have to buy. Cattle on feed report was negative.Continue reading