Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (10/6) There are very volatile cycles that dominate the next few days. Two years ago when we saw them, they created cycle high for grains and lows for cattle. Going into harvest pressure and one would think that the market would be lower. We’re going to wait for this cycle to get out of the way.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (10/5) There are very volatile cycles that dominate the next few days. Two years ago when we saw them, they created cycle high for grains and lows for cattle. They appear to be inverting so far but given the level of intensity, we still could see grains come off their lows and meat still reverse. Given a horrible week, we’re going to wait for this cycle to get out of the way.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (10/3) Cycles and seasonals are positive this week and this week hold the best chance for gains and then some sideways congestion early next week before the next USDA report. We need to complete more research on cattle and hogs to have a clearer vision on trading for the month of October. We can buy grains on dips this week, as seasonals are supportive, the markets are oversold and cycles are friendly.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: We can buy grains on dips this week as seasonals are supportive, the markets are oversold and cycles are friendly. Cattle look lower this week and need a rally on Monday to get short into Thursday. Hogs aren’t clear and are complicated with many crosscurrents and will let the dust settle.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: Not sure we learned anything from Thursday action as key numbers held. Cycles are weak the next few days but there are always those USDA surprises and crazy fund gyrations. We’ll probably have to move stops down on some contracts on Friday. Cycles next week look higher but the verdict is out on Friday and month-end fund position squaring will muddle the picture. If we hold beans through the report, we’ll have a tight stop in place and wheat remains on the edge. Corn isn’t likely to take out 360 so we’ll position trade and wait for it to break.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) We got a bounce on Wednesday with wheat completing a key pattern and beans doing a weak bounce corn being pretty sideways. Cycles peak overnight and then should be sideways before the stocks report. The USDA report on Friday and then end of the month position squaring should create illogical crosscurrents and new trading may not be advised. Will want to exit some positions on Thursday before grain reports.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Wheat remains bid but beans broke enough that we can relax a bit more and corn isn’t doing much. Good chance for a bounce on grains for Wednesday but it’s harvest time. Trade may start congesting before Friday’s grain stocks report – as if we need another report. Still, harvest pressure should still win out.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (9/26) Crop progress reports were rather neutral. Grains are recovering a bit at the open in the early night session and were oversold. Wheat looks best. We will favor shorts one more day but then may have to move stops lower into Wednesday.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (9/25) Happy Fall Equinox. Grains are tiring and we would think they will give into weekend harvest pressure. All cycles look lower for grains Monday/Tuesday and thinking we may get a strong move down from weekend harvest pressure. COF report was bearish and the market was overbought into it and leaning the wrong way so a correction into Thursday could easily happen. Cold storage was very friendly for frozen pork bellies and may allow a nice bounce in hogs this week.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (9/22) We have a bias toward lower grains on Friday and harvest pressure should pick up. Trade is waiting on COF report and there has been a bias toward a friendly report but the price has to be built in by now.Continue reading