FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/26) May get a sick, minor bounce on grains on Wednesday but inclined to expect weaker prices into Thursday and Friday. We would continue to sell rallies but probably have to take profits on shorts by Friday/Monday.
Hogs look higher after a 3-wave fall
FOR TUESDAY: (7/25) Crop reports were worse than expect and that might give us a bounce to get short. Too much technical damage was done on Monday to negate deeper price falls into Friday. If we get a bounce on cattle, look to sell. Hogs look higher after a 3-wave fall that has held 8000.Continue reading
Grains look higher Sunday night
FOR MONDAY: (7/24) Grains were lower on schedule on Friday. Sunday night looks higher and Monday lower but corn had a technical breakdown closing under the 20-day moving average. Beans are of course stronger and more vulnerable.Continue reading
Weather could get beans up to 1061 by Sunday
FOR FRIDAY: (7/21) The longer-term weather seems somewhat dire with the drought monitor and that might be enough to get beans up to 1061 by Sunday but we never trust weather news. Corn may go along for the ride. We originally had cycles pointing lower on Friday for grains and we know how quickly weather flips and will evaluate in the morning.Continue reading
Look to take profits on long grains by morning
FOR THURSDAY: (7/20) We should see grains recover into the close of the night session but then they look like they turn lower into Friday. Hard to get away with longs in late July and they often sell the bad weather—which is very real. We would take profits on grain longs by the morning and may get short for a few days in case we get a meltdown.Continue reading
e have a bias for a recovery on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/19) We hate trading grain weather markets and should give it up and now that computerized funds have taken over it’s more challenging. We have a bias for a recovery on Wednesday but any new sneezes in the wrong direction from the weather people and we could be wrong. Latest forecast adds more heat and dryness but could change at 6 am. Technically we had a grain breakdown last week for corn and wheat. This week’s recovery is a bounce and the market is almost always down the last week of July so I expect that next break will come then.Continue reading
Cattle cycles very volatile, seasonals friendly
FOR TUESDAY: (7/18) Never quite sure how they will react to the crop reports but the market could stay bid into Thursday if there’s no major damage on Monday or Tuesday. Cattle cycles are very volatile but seasonals are on its side here. Hogs look mixed.Continue reading
Grains could be higher Sunday into early Monday
FOR MONDAY: (7/17) Lately Sundays and Mondays have had strong upward moves when weather disappoints or turns more negative. We think the market could be higher on Sunday into early Monday but then give back gain on Monday, as new selling will emerge if we get that kind of gap. The pollination threat is out there if the weather doesn’t change and that should create a head-and-shoulders top for corn if we’re patient.Continue reading
Grains look sharply lower Monday night
FOR FRIDAY: (7/14) Collapses in the grains usually can lead to cascading waterfall events as the trade heads for the exits. Still won’t rule out a head-and-shoulders bounce into Monday so chasing has to be followed by quick profits. We had suggested puts on strength and futures are crazy and will still be so. We had put out some early sales on beans and if we’re to get into corn it may be from bounce later. These markets don’t let one in easily when they fall apart. The market could congest before the weekend and be higher on Sunday into early Monday if the pollination scare happens but then looks sharply lower on Monday night after the crop report.Continue reading
Thursdays are usually not kind to grains
FOR THURSDAY: (7/13) USDA days can be major changes of trend on the month. There is a conflict between hot and dry setting up into pollination and almost failing tecnnicals. Beans didn’t fail enough yet. I think this was the shake-out move and one divergent high can come but hard to hold grains this late in the season and not get killed. Use strength to stay protected with put options and futures may come through. Thursdays are not kind to grains usually and cycles are mixed into Friday. Running out of time.Continue reading