Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (4/28) The 29-day cycle is friendly for grains on Friday and we have to think the market could go crazy given weekend weather forecasts and then get overdone and turn lower next week. Cattle still have room to go higher into Monday and are in are a bit too difficult to play like a Chinese knife acrobatic act. Hogs are worth a buy on dips.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (4/27)  Wednesday was very volatile and some of it was tied to economic saber-rattling with Canada and Mexico and a surprise limit-up move in cattle. Soybeans were lower amid talk that delays in corn planting could possibly shift some of those acres to soybeans. Winter wheat markets closed near unchanged while spring wheat had more gains as wintry weather slowed planting in the northern states. Usually we can get away selling grains on Thursday with beans the safest of the bunch, as weather is still ugly for corn.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/26) Grains look higher at least one more day but then may run into trouble. Still, if rains are as bad as they predict in some areas, they may not go down much. Hogs still look higher into Monday and we’re still willing to sell rallies on cattle.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (4/25) Plantings reports were bearish but not sure the market will go down that much and even if they do, we think Wednesday could be a bounce day. We still like the short side but have to make sure the trade does not get too upset about excessive rains in the 7-day forecast. If we get a bounce on feeders, look to sell. Hogs now should be up this week so buy pullbacks on Tuesday.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (4/24) We covered our grain shorts on Friday in corn and beans. Cycles should allow for a minor recovery with planting progress likely still below average. Cattle looking overdone and may present a sale up towards 1.18, but clearly a top pick as we move into May. Missed our hog sale on Friday’s by 15 ticks and have already fallen to our target. Will re-evaluate Monday.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Still, seasonals are against this market and there’s nothing in the news but a concerns about fewer corn plantings. Thirty-day outlook for rains are normal so is there anything to save corn?Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Cattle looks lower on Thursday but if no break happens, we still might get new highs on Friday. Hogs had a technical breakdown and weak cycles are into Monday, and we should be selling rallies if we can get.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) We were wrong about grains turning around this week but Wednesday is often the safest day for them to go higher and they are a bit beat up and looks like minor 4th-wave bounces are due. Still, seasonals often turn down in late April and we probably were too optimistic. Not panicking yet but grains are in trouble. Cattle still could be up on Wednesday and we’ll buy oversold conditions for hogs.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (4/18) We looked at cycles for grains into Thursday and they seem supportive so a light buy is favored. Cattle cook missed and hogs higher now into Thursday. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first. The dollar may recover into Wednesday from oversold conditions.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (4/17 no change) We looked at cycles next week and they look friendly for grains and cattle but lower for hogs. We’ll probably want to add more grain on pullbacks on Sunday night. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first.Continue reading