Beans probably a buy by Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (10/1) USDA’s quarterly stocks report was the main driver in grain markets on Friday, delivering mostly bearish news. Corn futures tumbled more than 2% by Friday’s close, with soybeans down more than 1%. The agency’s stock report had more bullish news for wheat, but those futures also ended around 0.5% lower amid some quarter-end liquidation. Grains look lower Monday and probably into part of Tuesday but may recover the rest of the week.Continue reading

Cycles for Thursday point lower

FOR THURSDAY: (9/27) Trade waiting on Friday’s USDA reports. Those reports are also happening at the end of the month when funds square position and before a harvest weekend. Cycles for Thursday look potentially lower so the trade may cash in their chips. Cattle may hold up all day but we will move stops up.Continue reading

Hogs still looking higher for a few days

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/26) We had a bullish grain cycle into Wednesday and didn’t get out of short beans fast enough or reverse. Still should be up on Wednesday but may get more volatile, and bean reversal was a bit ugly already. Hogs are still higher a few days, as are cattle.Continue reading

Expecting a pullback on Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/25) Expecting a pullback on Tuesday. Nothing bullish in the crop conditions report. We do see higher meats the rest of the week but hard to chase hogs at current levels. Still like long cattle and may get one more pullback early Tuesday for a buy on feeders.Continue reading

Harvest pressure likely to hit grains into Sunday-Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (9/24) We see harvest pressure hitting grains into Sunday-Tuesday, and someone is going to use this rally to empty their bins. Too early and too big of a crop to declare a major bottom. Cattle on Feed was as expected but dips should be bought, with higher prices the rest of the week. Hogs look higher the rest of the week, with Monday vulnerable, and we’ll wait there before chasing.Continue reading

Exaggerated short-covering may not mean much

FOR FRIDAY: (9/21) Cycles are mixed. Definite chart turn-ups for wheat and beans but corn is lagging, and we’re coming into weekend harvest action and Sunday look lowers and also possibly Monday. Exaggerated short-covering may not mean that much given the large crops. We had exited ½ of corn and bean hedges already and should have a chance to get out of more later. Cattle look lower one more day; hogs should do profit-taking but don’t look done.Continue reading

Too dangerous to buy grains

FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) We had grains recovering on Wednesday but think it may be a 1-day shot. Grains are often lower on Thursdays and beans need to take out 836 to trigger a daily chart reversal. Action on Wednesday was promising but too early to signal a seasonal bottom. Corn still would look better at 340 or 336.50 and 801 for Nov. beans, and wheat will get dragged along. Too dangerous to buy. Some rains in the Midwest will delay harvest but not enough to prevent farmers from emptying their bins. Hogs may be too overbought to go much farther if 6100 comes in on October. Cattle aren’t coming off much but cycles suggest they should. Ideal sales there from higher levels, which we probably won’t see until Thursday.Continue reading

Key numbers in on grains

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/19) Key numbers in on grains. Lower is very possible. Cycles are more mixed than higher into Friday so not seeing any need to buy with harvest pressure building. Hogs may get oversold and fall into Friday with no place to go. Cattle are mixed and we have a bias toward lower prices.Continue reading

Cycle low for grains into Wednesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/18) We found a new cycle low for grains into Wednesday that we missed in earlier research so no reason to bottom pick corn early. Beans projecting 805 now and wheat could easily get taken along for the ride. Will the trade buy the fact of the China sanctions or will they just quickly drop it another rung. No reason to but can you get into shorts?Continue reading