Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (1/12) Congestive grain action likely before USDA report on Thursday. We have a bias toward a positive reaction to the report for Thursday/Friday, and corn isn’t falling as farmers aren’t selling and export demand is strong. Cycles remain volatile to lower for cattle and hogs on Thursday. Wheat looks like it issued a technical sale and weather is wetter and that may do it in but we have to be patient.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/11) Congestive grain action likely before the USDA report on Thursday. We have a bias toward a positive reaction to the report for Thursday/Friday and corn isn’t falling as farmers aren’t selling and export demand is strong. Cattle look higher on Wednesday and may get very violent by Thursday as they are going up parabolicly. Freezing temperatures in the 20’s is spooking ranchers in the South.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (1/10) Grains look like they will be in trouble into Wednesday. Cattle may retrace a day but they held well and seasonals and weather look supportive. Hogs may tag along and we won’t push shorts anymore until maybe Thursday if rallies are sickly the next few days. USDA report on Thursday may create more congestive ranges. We favor upward movement for a few days after the report.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (1/9) Grains look like they will be in trouble into Wednesday with a bounce Monday possibly having the best chance of happening if we get some friendly news over the weekend. Cattle look better next week and hogs may be oversold and we’re moving stops down and will take profits and probably resell a 2-day bounce.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (1/6) Cycles are wild the next few sessions. Weather shouldn’t be too much more of an issue and rallies this week on grains should be given back for 3 days next week. Still puzzled by cattle this week but big energy point over the weekend should lead to a reversal next week. We need to complete work on cycles then.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (1/5) We managed to get short corn and exit wheat and reverse but our play with beans didn’t work. The trade seemed one day behind in seeing what we saw Monday night with beans but happy they have a chance to go lower. We still want to sell hogs on the technical breakdown on Tuesday, and cattle should hold up on weather for a few more days.

Near term weather forecasts for South America are mixed, too dry in some areas, too wet in others. The South American crop is roughly at the early July stage of development. Early harvest activity in Brazil could start by mid-month, so increased competition for export market share is on the horizon. Soybean meal and oil followed beans higher. Weekly export sales are delayed until Friday.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/4) The dollar reversed to the downside today sharply but crude did also so another mixed bag day. Grains cycles are often lower the first week of the year and patterns and cycles suggest weakness. Cattle should recover but are a bit overdone and a minor pullback is healthy so far. Hogs may bounce for a day to set up a sale on Thursday.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (1/3) First of the year trading for grains is often crazy. Weather gaps up are possible and chances are they will be sold for the rest of the week and that is our strategy. Meats look firm this week on cold weather but it’s relative and not as bad as early January can be. Off to the races. Wishing you a successful trading year!Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (12/30) Final day of the year may have funds doing position squaring and hopefully cattle are lower because they have been higher all week and not pulling back. We do see lower grains next week and will exit longs and look to get short on Monday night or Tuesday if we can get a decent risk/reward.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (12/29) Thin market conditions are not making for fun trade and we might normally just sit back but there were some clear patterns and cycles, and we still think that is the case. We will go with higher grains into Friday and then lower next week and still looking for pullbacks on cattle the next few days and rallies on hogs.Continue reading