FOR FRIDAY: (11/25) We’re looking for grains to start lower on Friday and continue into early next week. We’re open to selling if the right prices and pattern completions happen and exiting by Nov. 30. Hogs have one more day up and then are lower next week. Cattle should start lower for at the next 2 weeks east and possibly the whole month. Continue reading
Hogs look higher on friendly report
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/23) Grains look higher as do hogs on a friendly storage report and cattle may hold up. Friday seems more vulnerable for selling grains and meats if you are inclined and early next week is mixed. Holiday trading is always a mess and usually we can live without it.
Seasonal fund buying taking over
FOR TUESDAY: (11/22) Seasonal fund buying is taking over but not sure how long it will last. Grains should correct Monday’s irrational exuberance on Tuesday but probably be higher on Wednesday and then retracing next week for a better set up buy. Hogs are celebrating Christmas ham early and cattle are tiring and we should be ok with shorts now there.
Grains look lower early next week
FOR MONDAY: (11/21) Grains look lower early next week but seasonals often support pre-Thanksgiving buying so we will have to wait for clues in the morning or top-pick. Cycles do look weak the next few sessions so we may get away with it for beans in particular. Cattle on feed was neutral and market is overbought so we can get short for specs and hedgers. Cold storage is Tuesday for pork.
Volatile grain cycles on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (11/18) Grain cycles are volatile on Friday. Early rallies could give way to sell-offs. Beans look lower on Sunday night and grains could still be lower on Monday but seem to perk up by mid-week. Meats are waiting on the Cattle on Feed report and are a bit overbought so hard to imagine acceleration happening no matter what’s in the report, and we have to sell for a few days. Cold Storage report is on Tuesday.
Hogs are topping
FOR THURSDAY: (11/17) Usually we can count on grains going lower on Thursday but cycles are particularly volatile so we’ll leave the markets alone and count on pattern completions lower to exit the rest of hedges and to start thinking about buying March contracts. Cattle is getting ready for COF report. Hogs are topping and have to take profits on longs.
Need to buy the new lows or secondary lows
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/16) We warned you about short-covering starting and these transition periods are tricky. Patterns aren’t done but buying may start for those picking bottoms and happy with value. We still have a chance for new lows and pattern completions and can’t do much on Wednesday. Need to buy the new lows or secondary lows, which did not come in. Market looks higher Wednesday with some cycle work suggesting higher prices into Friday while the 29-day cycles suggest a peak Wednesday and a pullback into Friday. Hogs look higher a few days but cattle cycles are rather mixed but look tired and should come off a few days.
Grain patterns might allow a mid-week bounce
FOR TUESDAY: (11/15) Continue to move stops down on corn spec and hedge positions. Patterns might allow a mid-week bounce and final lows by Friday/Monday, which is when seasonal lows come. Cycles for cattle and hogs are mixed this week but the 16-year cycle is hitting and last time it had the market lower.
Cycle lows due by first hour of trading
FOR MONDAY: (11/14) Cycle lows due by the first hour of trading and then we may get short-covering before the progress weekly report. Tuesday is unclear and we will continue to monitor patterns. Seasonal lows are due this week and buying usually happens before Thanksgiving. Continue reading
Grains continue to disappoint
FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) We had suggested the need to sell rallies today/Thursday but we didn’t get anything after the USDA report and we had gotten stopped out of beans on the freaky rally on Tuesday. Will be harder to chase but usually you sell the Nov. USDA report and get out before Thanksgiving and there is still time left. Still disappointing how this market has its bizarre rhythms sometimes.