Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (10/27) Grains may hold up overnight or even into the first hour of trading on Thursday but then should turn down into Sunday/Monday. We’re willing to sell more grains if we get higher and expect a volatile day and possibly a reversal. Cattle are overbought and due for a 1-2 day fall and hogs are in that shape also. Still hard to fight recent strength.

FOR WEDNESDAY (10/26) Once the rain departs late this week, forecasts indicate drier weather. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 20-Nov.3) has mostly dry weather for the Midwest next week with above-normal temperatures. The dollar was volatile, jumping to a 10-month high early against foreign currencies only to turn lower when the crops closed. Wednesday has a chance to be higher for grains. Meats may hold up another day or into early Thursday.

FOR MONDAY (10/24) Cycles turn weaker for grains this week and we would continue to sell and hedge rallies—if we get any more. If you have nothing on, you may have to go to the market Sunday in case hedge pressure hits the market hard. Cold storage report was one of the most bearish in history and cattle report was friendly. Much of the Corn Belt should be dry before storms emerge early next, focusing heaviest totals in the upper Mississippi River valley.

FOR FRIDAY (10/21) Harvest-friendly weather may have played a role with forecasters calling for dry days in the Midwest into the weekend. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 25-29) does put rain back in the Midwest then along with above-normal temperatures. We thought we could hold out another day to sale but beans got within ¼ cent of 990 and corn couldn’t get through the key Gann number of 360. We like to wait for reversals before top-picking and we’ll get short tonight now that they are clearly in for corn and cycles looking weaker next week. Cattle and hogs should be sideways before the USDA reports.

FOR MONDAY: (10/17) Weather continues to be an impediment for Midwest farmers with rain through the weekend in the region. The 6- to 10-day outlook, however, reduces rain amounts in the western Midwest next week. Exports have continued to be supportive. We think harvest pressure will hit the market for a few days but it still may hold up into Friday. Cattle and hogs may bottom on Monday and turn up into Wednesday at least. Can’t get too bearish but may wait until Tuesday to buy.

FOR FRIDAY: (10/14) Wheat was the big story on Thursday and it was a very unusual day that surprised us. Wheat export business included Egypt buying Black Sea wheat, Saudi Arabia in the market for nearly 600,000 metric tons, and Japan buying some U.S. wheat. Farmers harvesting Midwest corn and soybeans should have dry weather today and tomorrow in most of the Midwest. Rain is forecasts for western Iowa on Friday. But, the seven-day and 6- to 10-day outlooks still favor rain for the region. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 18-22) still favors above-normal temperatures for most of the country. Cycles are not there but would be open to slightly higher prices on Friday before harvest pressure kicks in so a gift for sellers and hedgers.

FOR THURSDAY: (10/13) Farmers harvesting Midwest corn and soybeans should have dry weather on Thursday. More rain arrives in Iowa on Friday. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 17-21) has more rain for the Midwest and above-normal temperatures for most of the country. Not many surprises in the USDA report and a typical October reaction and we see grain weakness into Sunday. Open to selling recoveries in cattle but may not get them as that market is also sick.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/12) For Wednesday’s crop report, participants in trade surveys expect USDA to trim the corn crop in that report and slightly raise the soybeans. Cycles look lower into Monday and any rallies on Wednesday will be a gift for cash selling and hedging. Hogs should hold up at least one more day and cattle may bounce from oversold conditions and set up better sales later. Rain is expected in much of the Midwest today and tomorrow, but drier weather should follow by the weekend. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 16-20) has more rain for the Midwest and above-normal temperatures for most of the country.

FOR TUESDAY: (10/11) The weekly grain inspections report and weekly crop progress will be released on Tuesday. Rain has entered Midwest forecasts for this week and next week, which is a change from the hot, dry pattern that had been expected. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 12-19) has transitioned to a wet but warm pattern for the Midwest. The trade is on hold waiting for the reports and without higher prices, we have no risk/reward to jump on shorts. Cycle repeat from Sept. 2-3 should be lower the next few days for grains and we have a chance to get better prices to sell if we’re patient.

FOR MONDAY: (10/10) We’re moving toward Wednesday’s USDA report which could hardly add any good news now that the market is overbought and harvest pressure is mounting. Still, we have to wait for better levels to sell and hedges and hope the market can get higher once again. At some point we may have to get aggressive from lower levels just to get something on for the next fall into Oct. 17.