Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (10/7) Farmers in the Midwest will dodge rain the next two days while harvesting corn and soybean, but should have drier weather after that. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 11-15) is for a warm and drier pattern for the region. Corn came off a bit more than we expected but we have higher prices on Friday. Looking to sell beans at 989 but it may take until Sunday to get up there. Cattle cycles suggest lower early and recovering on Friday.

FOR THURSDAY: (10/6) Not sure we learned too much on Wednesday except people are willing to buy key support on wheat near 390 and there is value there. Otherwise it was a wash day of non-significance. Rain will plague the Midwest corn and soybean harvests this week, with severe storms expected on Thursday from Kansas to Iowa, but the 6- to 10-day outlook favors a warm and drier pattern for the region. Traffic on the Mississippi River should return to normal as the Army Corps of Engineers on Wednesday reopened the only lock that closed due to the high water that spilled out of Iowa. Wheat was sharply higher on Moroccan purchases.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/5) Commodity Weather Group reports that rain continues to plague the Midwest harvest with forecasts putting severe storms in Kansas and Nebraska today and flash flood warnings from Oklahoma to Minnesota. Rain lingers on Wednesday with more storms in Kansas on Thursday and flash flood warnings from Kansas to Iowa. So far there have been only minor disruptions to Mississippi River traffic. The Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday said the one Mississippi River lock that is closed should reopen tomorrow.

Inclined to think that the rally for grains and cattle will continue one more day. Hard to do countertrend buys on the grains and have to bank profits on cattle longs as things disappear quickly in that market.

FOR TUESDAY: (10/4) Monday’s violent rally was a bit of a shocker. We had cycles up for a few days and funds sometimes buy Oct. 1st for a week or so before the next USDA report but this was a bit much. Some announcement of the USDA not allowing flooded grain onto the market was a bit of a scare. Harvest in the Midwest was slowed by rain this past weekend, but should gain some traction under clear skies. More rain arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday, plus the weekly and 6-to 10-day forecasts favor rain for the western Midwest.

FOR MONDAY: (10/3) Corn closed higher for the day after USDA reported smaller-than-expected Sept. 1 stocks of 1.74 billion bushels. The change in the stocks and other factors were enough to push December past resistance at the 20- ($3.34) and 50-day ($3.34) moving averages and higher for the week.

Going into October, attention will focus on the weather and harvest progress. Iowa should be dry the next few days to allow harvesting there, while showers linger in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 5-9) favors more rain for Iowa. We are open for grains to recover a day but beans are a safer sell and corn could hit 340.50 and wheat 414 first. Hog and Pig report was bearish but how much more can it go before we get a bounce? Cattle look higher on Monday from limit down and key 119 level reached for Dec feeders so what to do but be patient.

FOR FRIDAY: (9/30) Last of the month is often short-covering and profit-taking for funds no matter what the USDA comes up with. Hard to imagine anything friendly. Rallies will continue to need to be sold with harvest pressure and hard to imagine beans having a good number. We’ll continue to play cycles and patterns. We probably still need to be short corn and beans next week unless there’s a huge surprise. Cattle close to being done and hogs may be lower all of next week if the report goes poorly, as cycles are there for problems.

FOR THURSDAY: (9/29) Hard to be short grains but market may continue short-covering on Thursday, and Friday’s report reaction may also continue with short-covering. Harvest selling should pick up by Sunday. We may have to continue to take profits on grains if we can get lower. In the end, we’ll have to sell any rallies on Friday or Sunday if they manifest. Cattle are getting very close to being done but still a few more days left to sell. Hogs are sideways before Friday’s Hog and Pigs report.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/28) Crop fundamentals remain bearish with harvesting under way in much of the Midwest this week and forecasts call for dry weather the next few days. The seven-day forecast also favors dry conditions for much of the Midwest, while the 6- to 10-day outlook has above-normal chances for rain in Iowa and for much of the northwest quarter of the country.

Not sure what the late rally was about except some short-covering before Friday’s report. Hard to be short grains on Wednesday but market may continue short-covering on Thursday and Friday’s reaction may also continue short-covering. Harvest selling should pick up by Sunday. We may have to continue to take profits on grains. Meats gave up gains late and not sure what to do with them now. Cattle close to key targets so a recovery could happen on Wednesday.

FOR TUESDAY: (9/27) Storms are moving across the eastern Midwest this morning, their punch diminishing as the system moved east. Maps over the next seven days indicate little behind that front, which should increase the pace of harvest after a somewhat slow start. Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts call for above average precipitation in the western half of the growing region, with the east drier.

Growers reporting lower average corn yields though soybeans are coming in good, with concerns about weather damage noted for both crops. Corn needs to take out 327 to project 323 and 320 into Wednesday’s low and then we have to deal with the short-covering rally before stocks report.

FOR MONDAY:  (9/26) Weather forecasts continue to call for a wet weekend that will delay harvest in some areas. October outlook is for bouts of rain which will make harvest a challenge for producers across the Midwest. Still, while storms continue to fall across parts of the Upper Mississippi River Valley, maps over the next seven days turned drier for the eastern Midwest and official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts also show less rain for the eastern two-thirds of the growing region. Early week rallies on rain concerns are eroding.

We show grains lower into at least Wednesday and then maybe short-covering may develop before the stocks report. We would take partial profits on multiples. Cold storage had a 132% year over year increase in pork belly storage but month to month totals were not bad. Cattle on Feed report showed a larger placement on feed than expected and marketings were higher than expected. This may help the unrealized pattern completions from this week come in on Monday for sales and hedges