Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/10) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest the next few days, with severe storms likely in parts of the Dakotas. The 6- to 10-day (Aug.14-18) puts hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains then, with below-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest. Attention remains on Friday’s USDA crop report. Farm Futures’ farmer corn and soybean survey produced a corn crop estimate of 14.59 billion bushels at 168.6 bpa and a soybean crop of 3.865 billion at 46.65 bpa. USDA currently has corn at 14.54 billion bushels and 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.88 billion at 46.7 bpa. August summer markets are hardly worth trading and pre-report paralysis makes it even worse so unless we can buy or sell very key support areas, there’s little reason to play.

FOR TUESDAY: (8/9) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest early this week. Highs in the mid-90s are expected in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this week, but forecasts show highs will be in the 80s by the weekend. The 6- to 10-day (Aug.13-17) puts hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains, with below-normal chances for rain in the Dakotas and normal chances for much of the Midwest. Seasonally, one buys grains this week. Hard to buy corn but wheat and beans are better values. Cattle still look lower 1-2 more days and hogs higher into Thursday.

FOR MONDAY: (8/8) Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday but there was not enough definitive movement for us to feel totally safe. Cycles for grains point lower into Monday but not sure we will stick around much after the USDA weekly report. Cattle look like they need to retrace on Monday/Tuesday and hogs look higher.

FOR FRIDAY: (8/5) Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday and willing to sell if we have a good risk/reward. Cattle are hooking lower and may be down into the middle of next week and hogs are too oversold to be chasing. We have to stay open to 323 on Dec. corn into Monday still but a buy should finally set up by then for the August rally–but it will be sickly.

FOR THURSDAY: (8/4) Positive cycles peak overnight for grains and meats but possible that grains could come back into the close. We continue to be open to one more push lower into Monday and we aren’t quite willing to top-pick for shorts until Thursday night or early Friday. Cattle had a nice run up on Wednesday and may come off a bit on Thursday and if so we’ll look to rebuy them.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/3) Still like the long side of meats for Wednesday and also grains for a counter-trend bounce. Macro data is centered on US employment numbers on Friday. Soybeans closed lower for the second day on Tuesday as weather forecasts show mild conditions the next two weeks and USDA late on Monday said corn and soybeans continue to do well and are quickly maturing. Wheat markets were pressured by the lower soybeans and by news that Japan and South Korea have temporarily restricted imports of certain classes of U.S. wheat after a GMO discovery in a Washington state field. Crude oil cycles are lower into Friday with cycle lows projecting 35.00 max. Not a good thing. The dog days continue!

FOR TUESDAY: (8/2) Warm and wet conditions are like a greenhouse—not fun to live in but great for growing. Beans are losing their fear premium. While temperatures turn warmer into mid-August, storms continue to rumble across the Corn Belt with maps for the next seven days showing coverage in most areas. Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts out yesterday are warm but wet, supported by the latest updates this morning. New forecasts for August issued Sunday confined above average temperatures to the Southwest and West, by-passing most of the Corn Belt, with above average precipitation predicted from the I-90 to I-70 corridors as far east as central Indiana.

Nothing friendly in the crop reports. Breakdown to lower levels on Tuesday seems inevitable. Hogs and cattle are indicating lows in and can be bought on dips until August 12. Hard to chase after near limit-up cattle moves.

FOR MONDAY: (8/1) Hot weather is expected early next week in the western Midwest with temperatures in the mid- to high 90s forecast Monday through Wednesday in Nebraska and Iowa, and in the 80s to low 90s elsewhere. The 6-to 10-day outlook (Aug. 3-7) is hot and dry for the western Midwest and hot for the rest of that region. There are a lot of energy points on Monday and oversold grains are likely to turn seasonally higher next week and through August in places. Hogs look done for now and cattle are due for a cycle low on Monday also and higher prices later in the week. We’ll let the dust settle before bottom-picking on many of these markets.

FOR FRIDAY: (7/29) Month-end position-squaring by funds and the 29-day cycle might allow a recovery for grains, and usually they are higher after August 1 for a few weeks. Temperatures in the mid-90s are forecast Monday through Wednesday in Nebraska and Iowa, and in the 80s to low 90s elsewhere. The 6-to 10-day outlook (Aug. 2-6) favors a 70% to 80% chance for above-normal temperatures for the eastern half of the country then. That forecast has mostly normal chances for rain then. Wheat finished lower ahead of big harvests in Europe and the Black Sea. A wheat tour in the Dakotas expects a lower average yield there and that supported spring wheat futures at times before they also closed lower. Meats continue to be difficult. Feeders came off 5.00 off of their highs. Contract rollover out of August meat contracts may continue for late-dwellers.