FOR MONDAY: (8/13) Never got the spike higher to get more shorts on but we’ve been hedging early. Grains cycles look mostly down for a week now, and the reality of the crop size and condition may continue to impact the market. Will be difficult to get new positions on but we’ll see what we can pull off. Nearly impossible to compete with computer traders who get orders off in nano-seconds while we decide where our entry will be, and even market orders get killed when the roof caves in. Working on weekly chart cycles and patterns but hard to imagine anything coming to the rescue until late October if demand picks up or SA has planting problems.Continue reading
Cycles suggest grains rally
FOR FRIDAY: (8/10) Another USDA report day. Cycles suggest a rally and usually these reports need to be sold and are key turning points. Grains look clearly lower next week and profit-taking will set in. The worst of the cattle fall should be over and we see a one-week recovery. Hogs put in a key low and look higher for about a week.Continue reading
Cycles for Friday’s report look friendly
FOR THURSDAY: (8/9) Markets are often choppy before the USDA report, and that makes trading tricky as you have to get in and out every day. So far, we’re justified in getting out of short beans but they’re not exactly running away. Cycles for Friday’s report look friendly and chances are that any secondary highs made on Friday will be sold, with weaker action the following week. Will look for set-ups for next week on rallies into Friday.Continue reading
Volatile cycles ahead
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/8) Markets are often choppy before the USDA report, and that makes trading tricky as you have to get in and out every day. So far, we’re justified in getting out of short beans but they’re not exactly running away. Cycles are volatile the next few days so probably will leave them alone.Continue reading
Corn nearing a new high
FOR TUESDAY (8/7) Grains may be sideways before the USDA report on Thursday but with an upward bias and they are very oversold so we have to wait for better levels to sell. Corn could make a new high. We have a bias toward higher grains the next few days and the weaker than expected crop conditions report will have short-covering happening. Beans still have technically issued a sell signal as have weak but a larger retracement is coming and we are not going into the red after being in profits so often. Cattle looks higher much of this week.Continue reading
Cattle pointing down on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (8/6) Will warmer weather spook grains higher on Monday? Cycles suggest it could but it would be a bogus secondary high and should be followed by lower prices on Tuesday. Still, this market doesn’t want to go down despite an outlook for a record crop. Cattle may be down for a day and then we would scoop them up. Too tricky to play hogs but they still look lower for a few days.Continue reading
Beans issue a sell signal
FOR FRIDAY: (8/3) The 29-day cycle is usually weak for grains on Friday but without a deep break, we’ll be concerned about higher prices for Sunday/Monday. Wheat hasn’t finished upward patterns and corn hasn’t broken enough to discount 391.50. Sometimes the action is quiet before a weekend break. We may exit by the open of Sunday if the market can’t collapse on Friday.Continue reading
Doubt that corn will get to 391
FOR THURSDAY: (8/2) After the close, Trump gave a one-week extension to China on more tariffs and wondering if that will allow a bit of a relief rally for beans overnight. If we are to sell more beans overnight, we have to wait and see what develops. They just missed the major breakdown point of 897. Doubt that corn will get to 391 and wheat is its own weather market. Getting really tired of trade war news with China and its jerky connection to grains.Continue reading
Upper targets complete on grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/1) Cycles still point lower into the end of the week and upper targets are complete although corn would hit 391.50. We have three cycles that should turn this market weaker into the end of the week.Continue reading
Grain cycles still point lower
FOR TUESDAY: (7/31) Beans held Sunday highs all day but wheat and corn made new highs on the day. Nothing in the weekly crop report is bullish so it’s hard to imagine this market holding up anymore.Continue reading