Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR MONDAY: (3/19) G-20 rhetoric on Monday/Tuesday may impact trade fears with China. Cycles are suggesting lower prices for grains for a few days. Cattle is due for a 1-2 day bounce but probably lower into the end of the week. Hogs are oversold but patterns suggest lower prices.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (3/19) The G-20 finance meeting is Monday and Tuesday, and rhetoric is likely to fly, and news-flow may be more dynamic before FOMC release on Wednesday. Given the recent trade-war rhetoric and tensions with UK and Russia, it would seem that this meeting may be more significant than normal. Still, they usually find a way to keep rhetoric tight and professional.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (3/16) We have a bias toward a recovery for stocks the next few days but can’t rule out that the trade war concerns won’t create weakness overnight. T-notes are set to recover into Friday but gold is failing Trade starting to look ahead to the G20 meeting next week where trade wars and Bitcoin muzzling are likely to make this meeting more crucial than usual. We’re starting to watch and project Bitcoin but more cycles to come.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (3/15) We have a bias toward a recovery for stocks the next few days but can’t rule out that the trade war concerns won’t create weakness overnight. T-notes are set to recover into Friday, as is gold. Trade starting to look ahead to the G20 meeting next week where trade wars and Bitcoin muzzling are likely to make this meeting more crucial than usual.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/14) There was a huge cluster of positive cycles peaking into March 12-13–and given a number of reversals, we have to assume that something bigger is happening until the next cluster into March 18, and then the trade is on hold into the FOMC announcement. On the fundamental level, trade war against China is not a help for the market and the momentum that started Tuesday, may continue. Reuters is reporting that Trump is planning to impose tariffs on $60 billion of Chinese imports. The tariffs will primarily target technology and telecommunications imports – but would not be expressly limited to these sectors, according to one source. Politico reported earlier that Trump rejected a plan for imposing $30 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, saying they weren’t big enough. Just when investors thought President Trump might be easing up on his protectionist push following the uproar caused by his decision to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, Politico is reporting that Trump’s next trade salvo will be explicitly directed at China.

FOR TUESDAY: (3/13) CPI is key here but market not likely to crash with new highs in NQ and likely to come in SP. Will watch the 2771 region for a place to be a buyer.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (3/12) Stock market roared back to life with huge gains in employment and lessening fear about North Korea and tariffs. Minor cycles point lower for a few days so we’ll have to see what Tweet happens over the weekend to worry the markets. Still, larger optimism cycle into Tuesday may override everything. There’s a lot of crazy optimism out there and it may not go away. Given the way patterns look on NQ, have to assume you buy the S & P until NQ futures hit 7500. Not sure what to do with weak March seasonals but they seem ore likely to be a problem the last week of March for now and then often we get a pullback into tax filings.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/7) Gary Cohen resigned late in the day and the stock market sold off strongly, and there are more Tariff wars with China looming in late news. It’s going from bad to worse for globalists following the Gary Cohn resignation, as Bloomberg just reported that the Trump administration is considering a major clamp down on Chinese investments in the U.S. by slapping tariffs on a broad range of its imports in response to alleged intellectual-property theft. Some chaos already overnight and more coming.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (3/6) We could see stocks retrace some of Monday’s gains on Tuesday before going higher into Wednesday and Thursday. Dollar looks lower now and gold higher but it’s not significant for a choppy week. Oil should recover into Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.
OVERALL: Monday can be important for taking a position on the week, but the week before employment report can be whippy and congestive and doesn’t always lend itself to trend trading. We have a bias for higher stocks this week into Thursday but the ideal buy S & P zones of 2630 or 2602 haven’t come in and have a chance early in the week. Dollar is usually congestive this week and hoping for a weak rally in gold so we can get short into March 13. We’re watching key turns on March 8 and 13 for most of these markets.

FOR MONDAY: (3/5) From what we can tell, the Italian election isn’t a big deal and no party is likely to get a majority, which will ultimately be good for a coalition government. The trade war is heating up, with Europe going to tax bourbon, Harleys and blue jeans. Studies from 2002 note that Bush’s 30% tariff on steel back then was a major factor in contributing to a 30% fall in the stock market into 2003. We’re so used to surprises that we’re not going to take a lot of positions going into Sunday. The week of employment report can be congestive with a big-range Monday but not sure big ranges mean anything anymore.Continue reading