Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (3/2) Volatility is rather intense and cycles are complicated. Rallies overnight on stocks can be sold overnight and into Friday but once S & P 2600 comes in, we doubt the market will continue with a waterfall. Markets are getting complicated and cycles are rather complex into the weekend so expect more crazy action.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (3/1) We usually can count on first-of-the-month buying to save the market and with some oversold conditions from the 2-day blood-bath, investment bankers may scoop stocks up. There’s a lot of data on Thursday, and that may fuel moves. Some cycles suggest a strong rubber-ban recovery the next few days but risk-taking cycles do get volatile going into the weekend. Seasonally, the later part of March is often bearish so we need to keep that in mind.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/28) The surprises came on Tuesday with Powell, as in the end, his comment on fiscal responsibility and problems down the road in a few years were sobering and needed and painful. In the end they were interpreted as being hawkish. Usually that kind of movement is carried over into Asia and Europe, which missed some of the late show.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (2/27) As much as we would like to trend-trade and hold, action on Sunday and potentially this week reminds us that these markets have rhythms that change weekly. The dollar failed to breakout last week and cycles point lower this week unless Powell turns uber-hawkish, and gold could get pulled up. New highs on NQ remind us that the SP will follow and that late to the party bears are going to be in trouble even if we still get wild 30-50 point corrections at times. Never a dull moment.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (2/26) Not sure there‘s anything huge pending over the weekend. The week before employment report usually has a big-range Monday and then a lot of congestion. NQ made new highs on the move and should pull the S & P. Not sure that bears can hope for anything meaningful this week but month-end profit-taking should hit from Monday into Wednesday. Dollar looks lower this week and has failed to break higher to 9050 or 9080 and we’re not into selling with the change of trend.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (2/23) No US reports on Friday. The trade will look elsewhere to Europe and Canada. The Eurozone will release its final consumer price index (CPI) reading for January on Friday. A stronger than expected CPI print could renew investor expectations the central bank could tighten monetary policy measures sooner rather than lighter after the release of somewhat dovish ECB minutes Thursday. The minutes showed that the central bank continued to believe that patience was needed as inflation remained weak and agreed that it was still “premature” to adjust forward guidance. Canadian inflation data also coming. Choppy action and big ranges in stocks is good for traders with nibble fingers but not a great trending situation.

FOR THURSDAY: (2/22) Is Goldman playing games again, suggesting 5 rate hikes this year when the trade through the Minutes meant 3 rate hikes? Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stocks high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. Have to see how Europe and Asia react to the news but our cycles and patterns are fairly clear.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/21) Market was overdone and a 2-day congestive fall isn’t that significant. Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stock high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. We like to let the dust settle and will focus on Wednesday entries.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (2/20) Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stock high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Three-day holidays can have a lot of movement. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. We like to let the dust settle and will focus on Wednesday entries.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) Cycles look positive but we may have everyone heading early for the exits for a much-needed holiday. Assuming profit-taking will set in by 9 am on trending situations, which means gold and silver coming off and short-covering for the dollar. Best entries may be Monday during the holiday for new longs on metals and shorts on the dollar.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) The close above 2727 means we won’t get much of a pullback, if any. Cycles are strong the next few trading days and not thinking there are too many major scares out there to keep the trade from buying before the long weekend. We assume that the 78% retracement up to 2802 will come in. We have a cycle high into Monday and a pullback for 2-3 days next week. Basically, we are in sucker-punch mode where the late bears may get punched out if they are not careful. In the end the chances of seeing a 78% retracement up to 2802 could happen by Monday if the trade is open to pre-holiday and holiday buying on Monday in Europe and Asia.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher into Friday; topping into Monday.