Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR MONDAY: (8/27) Not sure the market cares about political noise and it will go on for months and months anyway and doesn’t mean much if corporate earnings and US growth is there. Will have to see how HI comes in over the weekend. Some fear cycles will intensify starting Tuesday of next week so we wonder if we get a strong move up for stocks Monday/Tuesday and then nowhere to go until the end of the month on Friday. Volume disappears as everyone heads out for the Labor Day weekend.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (8/24) Market still congestive before Jackson Hole and China news. Seems not to care much about Trump scandal. We still can be rather congestive on Thursday, and then we have to deal with lots of news and craziness on Friday. Never a dull moment. We have a bias for toward a negative resolution for stocks on Friday but we’re so used to surprises with all of this stuff. They never make it easy.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (8/23) Market still congestive before Jackson Hole and China news. Seems not to care much about Trump scandal. May still be rather congestive on Thursday, and then we have to deal with lots of news and craziness on Friday. Never a dull moment. We have a bias for toward a negative resolution for stocks on Friday but we’re so used to surprises with all of this stuff. They never make it easy. Already gold is too overbought to chase up here and may be coming off.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/22) Market sharply lower on the Cohen news but may recover by the morning. We got the stocks sell signal and now have to find a place to get in. Dollar really falling apart but need a dead-cat bounce into Wednesday to get in and will look in the morning.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (8/20) Cycles are volatile on Sunday/Monday and we could get some wild geo-political news, and it has been happening already. Patterns for stocks look a bit higher and if there’s no wild news, the market tends to find a way to go up on Mondays. Tuesday looks more vulnerable for stocks. Two key trend changes for many markets over the weekend and so by late Monday, we should have reversals in place from last week, with metals looking lower from weekend highs into Wednesday and the dollar recovering next week. Oil looks higher until the Aug. 27, and stocks should do another leg lower next week but can’t rule out first running wild to the upside on Sunday or early Monday.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (8/17 no change) Expecting stocks to recover the next few days while metals should find a temporary floor and do a dead-cat bounce. While stocks have issued a stronger sell-signal, we can probably only count on another 61 S & P points lower from wherever the market stalls into Sunday or Monday. There’s a sense that with Turkey, the other shoe could drop and set off a major crisis but not clear on the timing and need to research much of September, which tends to be bearish for stocks anyway.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (8/16) Expecting stocks to recover the next few days while metals should find a temporary floor and do a dead-cat bounce. While stocks have issued a stronger sell-signal, we can probably only count on another 61 S & P points lower from wherever the market stalls into Sunday or Monday. There’s a sense that with Turkey, the other shoe could drop and set off a major crisis but not clear on the timing and need to research much of September, which tends to be bearish for stocks anyway.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/15) Hard to play overnight with geopolitical and geo-economic tensions strong. If the stocks don’t fall apart overnight, they will continue to be a buy on dips. Dollar looks higher 2 more days and gold lower.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (8/14) Spillover from Turkey to South America may be the next domino to fall but global markets managed to recover. Stocks could put in a divergent low but we think the surprise will be to the upside and we’ll wait for the morning to make a final decision on how to trade.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (8/13) On Thursday, we had put Turkey on the list of key places that could be impacted by geopolitical tensions and we’re not through the weekend yet and still have highly sensitive areas outlined for China, UK, Argentina, Turkey, India and Israel. The cycle over the weekend can trigger major political and economic events of significance, and it should impact oil strongly–and usually the powers that be create enough saber-rattling to make sure that oil stays up. As always, hard to take a position home over the weekend.Continue reading