(1/20) Some crude cycles suggest it could hold up into Sunday. Crude needs to take out 7789 to confirm a temporary top. If the market does not break soon, we still could get to resistance to 82.60 and 83.33.
We looked closely at early Feb. cycles. We still have a cycle low into Jan. 30-1st and then the market should take off into late Feb. The cycle repeats the explosive move we had last Jan and Feb and into early March. Not sure if the fundamentals are there for a repeat of that move but crude is not falling and oil stocks are not falling despite recession fears.
We are not clear where the pullback into January will go but looking like it will be more like 7660-7600 than anything more dramatic with the next upward pattern at least getting to 9000. Something bigger is very possible.
All of our cycles suggest lower crude prices into the end of the month and all the ETFs like USO and XLE do not look done. We will want to get into USO at the next pullback low into late January. .
LONGER-TERM CYCLES:
We looked at longer-term cycles and they are friendly from a low in late January to a high in early April. For now, we are ready to throw short-term cycles out the window and continue to focus on the pattern.
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