FOR THURSDAY: (7/6) The weekly crop condition report suggests a dip for corn and higher bean prices and wheat is on fire—literally. We hate weather markets but can see buying corn if we can buy near 400 and doubt we’ll get a retest of 980 to buy beans but will try. Still seeing higher prices into Friday but then concerned about next week. Feeders in trouble on Thursday and hogs still higher for a few more days.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/6) Crop ratings for corn weren’t as bad as the trade wanted. Congestion triangle may fall to 399-400 and then turn higher to 410We could see Dec. corn hit 425 if wheat keeps going and it would be a gift but now it’s early July and the crop will pollinate soon and the forecast is hot and dry. Luckily we had banked great profits on July corn shorts last Tuesday. Cycles for wheat are strong into Friday and that market is leading the way but at some point commercials will jump in and grab these corn prices. If we see 420-22, we’ll probably jump at hedges. Given the size of the crop, hard to imagine 450. Corn will have to take out 387 to issue a sell signal.
WEEKLY CHARTS: Continuation charts had pointed to 405 earlier in the year and that is still 35 cents higher which would take Dec. corn up to 425. That is possible if Sept wheat takes out 555 and starts heading for 600 this week. We have to hedge with these prices but have to watch the crazy funds with eyes behind our head. Continue to use strength and buy Dec. puts to withstand the volatility.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Friday.