FOR THURSDAY: (7/6) Trade waiting on the employment report on Friday. Cycles for stocks look lower and higher for the dollar and higher for T-notes and lower for gold. We need to position ourselves if we are going to take a stand into the report.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (7/6) In the morning we suggested a range between 2420-30 and it get exceed by a bit on both sides. We expect sideway action on Thursday and the 29/30 day cycle is lower so some bad news could hit the market and we have a bias toward being short. In the end, we could end up with congestion between 2444 and 2400 and not breakdown, and that would allow a move up into July 18. If we can sell near 2435, we’re fine getting something on and holding into the employment report.
OVERALL: Until 2390 comes out, bears will have to claw their way. The rally into Wednesday was feeble and wobbly and we’re open to the other shoe dropping.
WEEKLY CHART: We ran cycles through August and they are mixed. We are not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we doubt that there’s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated August-October. The market does seem like it will hold up into July 5, retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into July 10.
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