FALL GEOPOLITICAL PREVIEW
Major climax cycles are set up around BRICS Summit in South Africa on August 21-23. Also into August 23-28th there are several international and geo-political cycles peaking and not sure how they resolve. Tensions between leaders and government are also climaxing into August 26-27th. Something major will happen then in the world. Will the stock market care? We do have cycle lows due into that time window.
Fall is usually not a great time for the stock market. We looked at our geopolitical cycles and there are a number of things setting up.
1) BRICS desire to destroy the dollar.
2) The political and Presidential crises in America could hurt the perception of investing in the US. We sense a late October peak here. We remember the Watergate scandal in 1973-4/
3) Geopolitical tensions with China over Taiwan have an eerie 18.5-year cycle peaking into November.
4) Another eerie geopolitical cycle with North Korea nuclear muscle-flexing is also peaking into November.
5) The reality of the FOMC will continue to hit.
We have some thoughts on fall downward potential. It is possible with the repeat of the Oct 1987 crash cycle into this October and November and it is connected to the 12 year cycle going into the third time around.
Gold cycles are very supportive for a strong rally in September and Bitcoin will probably benefit from this mess. For now we are in the dog days of August wondering if 4650 on the S & P cash will hit before the craziness.
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