FOR TUESDAY: (2/28) Cycles are complicated going into the end of the month. Patterns suggest a bit more to the downside with bottoming and basing action and then probably a buy setting up by Wednesday. We’re willing to start buying July grains if key numbers hit.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/28) We exited March and are rolling to the July contract, which is trading about 15 cents over March which goes into first notice day on Tuesday. March got within a cent of lower support at 358.50 and if you want to start buying July, you can a bit lower than today’s low.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/10) Taking out the weekly chart trendline at 351 will be important to allow for something more dramatic to the downside and unlikely to happen with firming exports and hopes for China. At this point 358 on March corn will hold. With 2.3 billion bushels likely leftover Sept. 1 from the huge 2016 crop, it’s hard to forecast a big rally without weather. But July futures appears to be adopting the pattern seen in yields of rising prices, and December is following the path normally seen to post gains into March/April. Fundamental value could get up to $4.20 to $4.55. The bottom end of the range could come in by April but we will need weather problems in June—and they are coming to get up to 4.50.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming into Tuesday.
