FOR TUESDAY: (2/28) There are some new crosscurrents happening. Everyone is waiting on Trump, who is saying another 56 billion for defense and more talk coming soon on health care and infrastructure and a delay in a tax proposal. Still, the man of surprises is likely to surprise on Tuesday night and we’ll continue to trade based on cycles and technicals but will keep stops tight into Tuesday night and probably miss any fireworks unless we put dangerous buy and sell stops in.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (2/28) Support is at 2358.50 and resistance at 2373.50 and 2375.50. Trump’s speech would make sense but it may not be much Key cash support at 2350. Failure to breakdown over the weekend reminds me that the path of least resistance is higher but the market has been up 12 days. Eventually 2393 on cash and 2391 on futures needs to happen to have a major completion and that could happen by the end of the week. In any case, we still have a bias toward higher prices. In any case, it usually doesn’t make sense to top-pick a bull. We will continue to look for patterns for a sense of completion by the end of the week toward 2393 on cash.
OVERALL: (2/15) We had an 80-100 point pullback in March into early April but will that be from 2393 on cash now? Not that far away now. Still thinking an early April low and then new highs this year still and not thinking crash this year and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% of things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Retracing Feb. 28; higher March 1; lower March 2; volatile/topping March 3.
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