(2/27) Will the trade wait for Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday to blast off again? There’s enough of a chance for a weird events on Sunday night or early Monday that we’ve gone home with only a few positions. We wonder if the dam in CA has a chance of breaking over the weekend. If something bizarre is going to happen, it stands a good chance of happening over the weekend. If we get a big move lower on Sunday night to complete patterns, the trade will buy it and take it to new highs. At this point it looks like spike highs for stocks and the dollar into Wednesday–following the speech–and that may be it, as a “sell the fact” will take place or a huge disappointment.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (2/27) S & P only fell in 3 waves although NQ patterns looked worse. If we get anything bizarre on Sunday/Sunday night, the market could still go to 2341 or 2333 but that seems a long shot and the more bullish pattern to 2375 stands a better chance on Monday. Eventually 2393 on cash and 2391 on futures needs to happen to have a major completion and that could happen by the end of the week. In any case, we still have a bias toward higher prices. If we do get a gap lower on Sunday, it would set up a buy for the next high into next week. Will the trade sell the fact of Trump’s infrastructure program? Looks unlikely and it seems that they will push the market up strongly after the speech into Wednesday. In any case, it usually doesn’t make sense to top-pick a bull. We will continue to look for patterns for a sense of completion.
OVERALL: (2/15) We had an 80-100 point pullback in March into early April but will that be from 2393 on cash now? Not that far away now. Still thinking an early April low and then new highs this year still and not thinking crash this year and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% of things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Volatile Sunday; higher Monday; retracing Feb. 28; higher March 1; lower March 2; volatile/topping March 3.