FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Still, seasonals are against this market and there’s nothing in the news but a concerns about fewer corn plantings. Thirty-day outlook for rains are normal so is there anything to save corn?
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Sell July Chicago wheat at 439 with a 443.50 stop.
SWING TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/21) We missed selling wheat by 2 cents and it fell like a rock and no we have no risk/reward to chase. First support is at 418.50 and then 416 and that is almost a place to take profits on hedges, as it is a key support area. Daily chart patterns suggest a rebound to 441 but not brave enough to step in front of a moving train. Weather forecasts remain favorable for winter wheat in the Midwest and Plains with ample moisture nourishing the crops. Winter wheat improved 1% last week to 54% good/excellent, as expected, and could improve more if the rain forecast in the Plain this week arrives. Spring wheat was 13% planted, well behind the 25% last year and the 21% average.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into April 21; higher April 23-24; lower April 25.
