Thinking grains will back off on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (3/2) Thinking grains will back off on Thursday but hold up on Friday. Cattle look lower for a few days and any deep pullbacks will lead to a breakdown. Hogs should complete a 3-wave rally into Thursday/Friday and set up a sale for next week.Continue reading

Ok being long stocks, dollars

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/1) We’ve been tempted to publish our report after Trump’s speech but there will be the reaction and counter-reaction and the head-fake and the high-frequency trading and in the end we have to go with price and pattern and cycles and try to ignore the news. We got out of the way by taking profits in the morning on short dollars, long euros and long gold and short T-notes. Cycles for the speech are positive and that looks like it will carry into the morning so we should be ok being long stocks and long dollars if you want to speculate and there’s always another report or announcement to consider.Continue reading

Increased volatility next few days

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/1) The corn market got very excited about Ethanol and its possibilities in the speech tonight and we had the most exaggerated move we have had in a long time that finally settled down to reality. Still, we are at a buy point in terms of timing and seasonals but cycles are rather complicated and volatility should increase the next few days. Meats are harder to chase now but still possible and some cattle cycles are higher into Friday.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/1) We bought 1 July corn on Tuesday night. Market could retest the 375.00 area but doubt that we will see more downside. Not sure anyone survived Tuesday’s action. In the end we like higher prices and seasonals the first weeks of March.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Wednesday; lower Thursday; higher Friday.

New crosscurrents in play

FOR TUESDAY: (2/28) There are some new crosscurrents happening. Everyone is waiting on Trump, who is saying another 56 billion for defense and more talk coming soon on health care and infrastructure and a delay in a tax proposal. Still, the man of surprises is likely to surprise on Tuesday night and we’ll continue to trade based on cycles and technicals but will keep stops tight into Tuesday night and probably miss any fireworks unless we put dangerous buy and sell stops in.Continue reading

Patterns suggest more downside

FOR TUESDAY: (2/28) Cycles are complicated going into the end of the month. Patterns suggest a bit more to the downside with bottoming and basing action and then probably a buy setting up by Wednesday. We’re willing to start buying July grains if key numbers hit.Continue reading

Markets awaiting Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday

(2/27) Will the trade wait for Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday to blast off again? There’s enough of a chance for a weird events on Sunday night or early Monday that we’ve gone home with only a few positions. We wonder if the dam in CA has a chance of breaking over the weekend. If something bizarre is going to happen, it stands a good chance of happening over the weekend. If we get a big move lower on Sunday night to complete patterns, the trade will buy it and take it to new highs. At this point it looks like spike highs for stocks and the dollar into Wednesday–following the speech–and that may be it, as a “sell the fact” will take place or a huge disappointment.Continue reading

Complicated cycles ahead

FOR MONDAY: (2/27) Cycles are complicated going into the end of the month. Patterns suggest a bit more to the downside with bottoming and basing action and then probably a buy setting up by Wednesday. We’re not going to rush and buy July without a secondary low and we have to continue to move stops down and take profits on any remaining grain shorts. We still like hogs to the upside until at least Wednesday and see cattle up this week if you want to bottom pick the neutral report.Continue reading

Better not to take anything home over the weekend

(2/24) Will the trade wait for Trump’s address to Congress on Monday to blast off again? There is enough of a chance for a weird event on Sunday night or early Monday that it probably doesn’t make a lot of sense to take anything home over the weekend. Earthquake and volcanic cycles are very strong into Tuesday/Wednesday and we wonder if the dam in CA has a chance of breaking over the weekend. If something bizarre is going to happen, it stands a good chance of happening over the weekend. If we get a big move lower on Sunday night to complete patterns, the trade will buy it and take it to new highs.Continue reading

Lower grains for 1-2 more sessions

OR FRIDAY: (2/24) Trade waiting on Cattle on Feed report. We’re seeing lower grains for 1-2 more sessions but then short-covering should develop. We’re looking to cover March hedges and did some already. Usually by March 1st, grains are a strong seasonal buy and we’ll use weakness soon to buy the stronger July contract.Continue reading