Congestion before employment report

FOR TUESDAY: (3/7) S & P cash confirmed a top for now but we didn’t get a close below 2370 although it should come. So used to choppy congestive action before employment report that the chance of a sustained meltdown on the S & P is likely and at best 2350 could happen. Most interesting in the news is Asia with North Korea and major Chinese meetings. Wiretaps and impeachment headlines are mostly distractions to keep you addicted to increasing media ratings. Very sad the state that professional journalism has fallen to. Where is Walter Cronkite when you need him?Continue reading

Looking to buy dips on grains

FOR TUESDAY: (3/7) Cycles are bit mixed but the Goldman roll out of April meats should pressure them lower for at least one more day. Grains also look lower one more day but we do want to buy dips if we get them.Continue reading

Grains still look lower for a few more sessions

FOR MONDAY: (3/6) Grains still look lower a few more sessions so we’ll be patient about chasing these markets. We do see a recovery higher on grains Wednesday and Thursday but wonder if the market will be skittish before Thursday’s USDA report. We’re going to need to exit short cattle to be on the safe side although cycles are volatile and lower patterns haven’t come in. Cycles are very volatile the next few days and it will be safer to wait for things to settle down before establishing new positions.Continue reading

Sell signal for stocks, dollar, Notes

FOR MONDAY: (3/6) The Monday before employment report often is a very volatile big-range day and then we see consolidation until the report comes out. We seemed to get sell signals for the dollar and we can clearly sell rallies in T-notes and sell stocks Sunday but usually by late Monday we have to deal with 3-4 days of sickly congestion and unclear patterns. Willing to take a stand on Sunday night on some markets but may get quickly out.Continue reading

Grains look mixed

FOR TUESDAY: Cycles are complicated going into next week and we still have to run more data. End- of-week position squaring always a problem but cattle still look lower one more day and grains look mixed.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/3) We’ll be patient about buying more corn for another day unless our buy comes in at 376.50. Key support at 384 has held so far. The pattern is rather unclear and there is no real place to put stop other than below 374.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Friday.

Record highs and patterns still don’t look complete

FOR THURSDAY: (3/2) Unemployment report is not until March 10 so Friday isn’t that special this week. Record highs and patterns still don’t look complete and we won’t top-pick stocks or the dollar. Crude looks higher into Friday and metals do also and still more room for lower euros and pounds.Continue reading

Thinking grains will back off on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (3/2) Thinking grains will back off on Thursday but hold up on Friday. Cattle look lower for a few days and any deep pullbacks will lead to a breakdown. Hogs should complete a 3-wave rally into Thursday/Friday and set up a sale for next week.Continue reading

Ok being long stocks, dollars

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/1) We’ve been tempted to publish our report after Trump’s speech but there will be the reaction and counter-reaction and the head-fake and the high-frequency trading and in the end we have to go with price and pattern and cycles and try to ignore the news. We got out of the way by taking profits in the morning on short dollars, long euros and long gold and short T-notes. Cycles for the speech are positive and that looks like it will carry into the morning so we should be ok being long stocks and long dollars if you want to speculate and there’s always another report or announcement to consider.Continue reading

Increased volatility next few days

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/1) The corn market got very excited about Ethanol and its possibilities in the speech tonight and we had the most exaggerated move we have had in a long time that finally settled down to reality. Still, we are at a buy point in terms of timing and seasonals but cycles are rather complicated and volatility should increase the next few days. Meats are harder to chase now but still possible and some cattle cycles are higher into Friday.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/1) We bought 1 July corn on Tuesday night. Market could retest the 375.00 area but doubt that we will see more downside. Not sure anyone survived Tuesday’s action. In the end we like higher prices and seasonals the first weeks of March.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Wednesday; lower Thursday; higher Friday.