Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR MONDAY: (2/5) We completed cycle work and most cycles point lower for grains all of next week. We’re dealing with weather and it can shift a lot over the weekend. At the moment the bean bears are looking to rains coming in after a dry spell ends. The wheat bears also see more rain coming after another dry spell. Hogs look higher next week and had a convincing reversal. Cattle look lower next week but Monday is a transition day.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (2/2) Poor U.S. exports and the prospects for improved Argentina weather pulled soybean futures down a second consecutive day, with “spillover” to blame for mixed wheat results, and with corn ending slightly higher after another choppy day. Grain markets are a bit overbought and we have a number of turns due here for a pullback into at least Monday and possibly a bit longer. Not sure if the bull market in wheat will end, and we expect more problems with Brazil later in the month so not sure we should turn bearish grains. Hogs look lower into Monday.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (2/1) Grain markets are a bit overbought and we have a number of turns due here for a pullback into at least Monday and possibly a bit longer. Not sure if the bull market in wheat will end, and we expect more problems with Brazil later in the month so not sure we should turn bearish grains. The cattle inventory report was as expected but a bit friendlier in some areas so short-covering likely. Hogs look lower a few days into Monday.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/31) Grain markets are a bit overbought but there is a climax cycle on Wednesday and the chance for profit-taking setting in before the month-end positioning by funds will increase volatility. Market could turn lower into Monday. Not sure if the bull market in wheat will end soon, and we expect more problems with Brazil later in the month so not sure we should turn bearish grains. We may exit short corn into Wednesday if not stopped. Cattle sideways before the semi-annual report on Wednesday.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (1/30) Funds continuing to want to buy and are supported by weather. The 30-day cycle is higher on Tuesday and with cycles inverting, if there’s to finally be a reversal, it may not be starting until Thursday. Still a lot of mixed signals but the momentum is there and we won’t fight longs and top-pick wheat or beans just yet. Not all Feb. signals are lower. Some of our weather data continues to point toward problems in Feb. for S.A., and that may mean a bottom is in and we won’t get a seasonal downtrend. Still crunching data. Cattle are also wild this week and we have the semi-annual inventory out on Wednesday.

MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/30) Beans stalled near the old highs at 1015 but could get pulled to 1024 if wheat supports the market. Too much rain here in some areas but not thinking that is really a problem. Still, we’re starting to sense that we’re not having a normal crop or normal weather in South America, and we can’t ignore the technical signals. At this point 3 waves down could go to 999-1000 over the next few days but we still need to get a handle on action on Feb. Month-end fund-profit-taking is also looming.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Key turn into Wednesday morning—-probably a low.

FOR MONDAY: (1/29) Waiting on weekend weather. If grains aren’t down hard on Sunday night or Monday, they should hold up into early Wednesday before month-end profit-taking will hit hard and a major cycle is due. COF report looks bearish with placements higher than expected and market is overbought going into it.  Cold storage for bellies was also rather bearish and should impact hogs, which have weak cycles next week anyway.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (1/26) Trump talked the dollar back up but will it last? If it does, grains have little reason to stay higher if SA weather finds some rain. Friday looks higher. Trade also waiting on the COF for Friday.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (1/25) The last day and we gave up on our numbers from weeks ago and they finally came in and then some. The higher dollar and higher crude are very helpful now and we wonder if our cycle lows into the end of the month will manifest or not. Usually we can count on grains being lower on Thursdays and the 29/30-day cycle is weak so let’s see what develops. If they don’t go down much on Thursday, a divergent high is possible on Friday.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/24) Have to get a bit more aggressive chasing short grains but they are still subject to weather. Seasonally one wants to be short the third week of January into early Feb. and cycles do look weak. Cattle have been subjected to winter conditions but should get some sell the fact action happening and they are overbought.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (1/23) Missed fills on Monday and have to be patient for key numbers to come in. Need to complete research around cycles later in the week so will work on that the next few days. Not seeing anything exciting unless we can get key numbers fulfilled. Continue reading