Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR MONDAY: (1/22) Grains look a bit overbought with topping action due by Sunday night and then lower action into Wednesday. Seasonally, they often turn down after Jan. 20 but not sure ideal price patterns will come in. Meats also look like topping action will hit on Monday and be followed by lower prices into Wednesday.

MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/22) Wheat failed but we still have to see how it comes in on Sunday night before putting out orders. Probably will see 428 but a push through 431 would accelerate the market to 440 and set up some hedging. Can’t rule a breakout but not that excited to buy near major resistance.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.

FOR FRIDAY: (1/19) Some minor weather supporting Argentine corn prices and it’s welcome, and wheat may get pulled up in the process. We originally had higher grains into Monday and will stick with that forecast. Cattle also looking good into Monday.

MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/19) We’re open to 357 or 359 coming in by Monday if Argentine weather concerns accelerate the market. Gift for hedging and selling if it happens. Not putting orders in early.
NEAR TERM: On the next push down, the market may hit 338.50 if you’re patient. Trade will probably do short-covering into Friday and Monday.
OVERALL: Weekly chart trendline support is at 338 and that seems a natural place this market will go this winter. Computer models give a small chance for 320 but we’re dubious.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.

FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Some minor weather supporting Argentine corn prices and it’s welcome, and wheat may get pulled up in the process. We originally had higher grains into Monday and will stick with that forecast. Cattle also looking good into Monday.

MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/18) Wheat rallied to the upper target and computer models give an 80% chance for a move to 409 now. Still, corn is moving higher and there are some weather concerns so we’ll defer to cycles and see where the market is into Monday. Not wanting to see 429 come out but worth a sale or scalpers. Cycles are somewhat positive but this market is bear and technicals and fundamentals are fading.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) We think beans are worth buying but won’t touch corn or wheat. Cycles are positive for meats into Friday and next Monday but have to be careful with their volatility.

MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/17) Can’t get too excited here. Corn held key support at 345-46 and not thinking 344 will come out but bearish patterns project 339, and wheat is in trouble and there’s no news to bring grains to life. Not going to play longs. If we hit 339 and have a strong bounce, then that might change our minds for a scalp play. Such a counter-trend play is not worth doing.
NEAR TERM: Market may hit 338.50 if you’re patient. Trade will probably do short-covering on Friday.
OVERALL: Weekly chart trendline support is at 338 and that seems a natural place this market will go this winter. Computer models give a small chance for 320 but we’re dubious.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.

FOR TUESDAY: (1/16) Forecasts call for below normal temps next week and oversold conditions for meats and grains should create recoveries into next Friday. Given bearish grain reports, hard to be too aggressive buying, and beans are too much off of their lows to have a good risk/reward so we’ll see how they come in on Tuesday morning. Wheat broke enough that we can’t think buy and will need a miracle to get up to 445-50 again. Corn likely to be dull.

MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/16) Market didn’t get down to key support at 941.50 or 938 abut bounced enough to confirm cycle highs and a recovery into next week. Beans could easily recover to 968.50 and 976 this week. Not sure we can count on more before 928 wants to come in. Not much hope from SA weather and at some point their crop will be made and this market will tank to 880 based on current patterns.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming by Monday night/Tuesday; recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.

FOR FRIDAY: (1/12) Not sure we learned much on Thursday except that the trade is willing to throw beans off a cliff as SA weather improves. Trade waiting on USDA report for Friday. Grain cycles look like short-covering will happen now and then next week looks higher for grains. Cattle also seems in trouble for another day. With the long holiday weekend, we have to move stops down tightly on meats and exit by the close on Friday. Pre-holiday short-covering could happen but hard to go long without key numbers coming in.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (1/11) Trade waiting on USDA reports at the end of the week. Grain cycles look like short-covering will happen now and then next week looks higher for grains. Cattle also seems in trouble for a few more days into Friday or part of Monday. Hogs also in trouble into Monday.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/10) Trade waiting on USDA report at the end of the week. Still, cycles are weak a few more days before short-covering starts. Cattle also seems in trouble for a few more days into Friday but showing some short-covering life and we’ll have to move stops lower.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (1/09) Trade waiting on USDA report at the end of the week. Still, cycles are weak a few more days before short-covering starts. Cattle also seems in trouble for a few more days.

MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/9) Patterns suggest a bounce to 433 and 424 has held. That still would allow 447 or higher to manifest if new weather threats come. We do not like to be short wheat with threatening weather and will continue to stay out of it. Much above 435 and you need to go long. Might see 449.50 or 457 if we have weather problems next week.
NEAR TERM: The 450 region is possible in January but concerned about end of the year meltdowns.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Jan. 9; higher into January 11.

FOR FRIDAY: Our cycle work has grains and cattle turning lower into Monday or even Wednesday of next week. Pray for the East coast with their latest storm. Too much suffering these past few winters for them. All of this will drive energy costs up which may eventually help farmers next summer.

MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/05) Bearish weather has turned in SA and if you want to get short beans you may need to chase. Ideal pattern at 974 is worth waiting for but forecasts will have to turn bullish. Rallies are likely to stall at 974 where we get daily chart retracement targets but a flush down to 938 is very likely. Daily chart pattern projects 889 but we can’t wrap our head around that happening for now. Given that wheat patterns look like new highs are coming, we will assume that beans will still hold up and will confirm but under pressure at least into Monday.
OVERALL: Daily chart pattern projects 889 but we can’t wrap our head around that happening for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Jan. 8-9; higher into January 11.