FOR TUESDAY: (12/26) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.Continue reading
Higher grains much of next week after Tuesday
FOR FRIDAY: (12/22) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.Continue reading
Cycles the week after Christmas looks mostly lower
FOR THURSDAY: (12/21) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/21) We noted key resistance at 960-1 for today but we’re reluctant to sell such oversold conditions and a surprise bounce to 970 wouldn’t be shocking. Key support at an Andrew’s Midline has held and much deeper and a fall to 920 could develop eventually but we’re skeptical. We should see 946 and 943 easily but aren’t willing to sell until maybe Thursday if we have better levels and then we’re dealing with holiday nonsense.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into Dec 21; higher Dec. 26.
Still favoring shorts
FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/20) We looked closely at cycles and they are rather complicated and intense and we would rather trade off of patterns. We do still favor shorts. Beans are rather oversold and wheat is the clearest sale if you need to do something. We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions in a few days.Continue reading
Will wind down positions
FOR TUESDAY: (12/19) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions in a few days.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/19) Market got close to key support at 956.50 and not sure what to do because we never got decent rally. Market is really oversold and might reach 970-2 if we are lucky but it’s hard to sell an oversold condition. Key support at an Andrew’s Midline has held and much deeper and a fall to 920 could develop but we’re skeptical.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Monday/Tuesday; lower Dec. 20-22; higher Dec. 26.
Weak grain cycles should end Sunday night
FOR MONDAY: (12/18) The worst of the weak cycles should be over on Sunday night and we should at least get a bounce for a few days before new shorts set up on grains. Cattle look lower the first few days of the week and hogs aren’t clear. We find that meat markets get very thin during the holidays and are hard to manage so we’ll mostly leave them alone as we get closer to the holidays.Continue reading
Meats look higher on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (12/15) Not much happening. Larger cycle into Friday is friendly for grains but not expecting much. Market starting to set up for pre-holiday position squaring as the pits and computers empty out for Christmas. We found a weak cycle for many markets into Friday and it may negate the original friendly cycle that is due over the weekend. My guess is that if key numbers hold into Friday, then a bounce out of there will happen Monday/Tuesday but then the market looks lower into Christmas. Meats look higher on Friday but then lower early next week.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/15) Beans broke key support levels and should go to 956. If we do get a bounce, it won’t take out 975 and that may be the sell point but a cave in toward 956 could happen given downward momentum. That makes market is a buy at 956 and a sale at 974-5.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways to higher Friday; lower Sunday; higher Monday/Tuesday; lower Wednesday/Thursday/Friday; higher Dec. 26.
Weak cycle for many markets into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (12/14) Not much happening. Larger cycle into Friday is friendly for grains but not expecting much. Market starting to set up for pre-holiday position squaring as the pits and computers empty out for Christmas. We found a weak cycle for many markets into Friday and it may negate the original friendly cycle that is due over the weekend. My guess is that if key numbers hold into Friday then a bounce out of there will happen early next week.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/14) Lower support down to 974.50 continues to hold but bounce has been feeble. With the sell signal, buying or bottom-picking is countertrend and now we’re thinking a bounce to 988 or 991.50-992 may be all we get. Counter-trend Traders can be buyers but you may only pull out 10-15 cents over 2-3 days total.
OVERALL: If we get a seasonal high into January, it could reach up to 1040-50 but it will require weather problems in South America.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Dec. 11-17.
Beans can be unforgiving when you’re wrong
FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/13) The December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released Tuesday with few major changes in the numbers, though the ripple effect increases projected wheat and soybean stocks for the 2017-18 crop by a comparable 25 million bushels while lowering corn ending stocks by 50 million bushels.Continue reading
The 29/30 day cycles seem bearish for Tuesday’s grain report
FOR TUESDAY: (12/12) The 29/30 day cycles seem bearish for Tuesday’s grain report but we’re open to a surprise given larger friendly cycles into Friday and Sunday. Would think that beans will hold 974.50 and recover and wheat and corn patterns are done so any breaks here wouldn’t be great. Gambling a bit for higher prices but the bears continue to be in control and so just risking small amounts.Continue reading