Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (10/20) October and November can be doggy months to trade grains, which stay in tighter ranges and sometimes you have to wait a while for key numbers and patterns to come in. We’re working on grain cycles for the next six weeks the next few days and we’ll have more insights as to final patterns and timing to report soon. For now we have a bias toward higher prices into at least Tuesday or Wednesday but not exciting to be long before harvest hedging sets in. Cattle may continue short-covering before the Cattle on Feed Report due out on Friday. Hogs look higher into next week but we need a pullback to buy from the report.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (10/19) We’re looking for a rebound on grains on Thursday and they have held key numbers discussed in the morning. Cattle may start short-covering before the Cattle on Feed Report due out on Friday. Hogs are crazy but may be up one more day. We still have to complete cycle research on the grain and meat complex for the next month as we move toward completing our monthly magazine newsletter.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/18) Looking like we missed shorts, as Wednesday looks lower but the next few days could get volatile if we get any unexpected events. Not sure what to do given incomplete upward patterns so we’ll wait for the morning.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (10/17) Corn and beans opened lower after the harvest report but still are open to a final buy on Tuesday if the market behaves overnight. Still seeing weaker cattle this week and higher hogs.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (10/16) Not sure if harvest pressure will mean much but markets are oversold for grains but still look higher a few more days. Key numbers of 1007 for Nov. beans and 444 for Dec. Chicago wheat are close and corn will go for the ride. We should be selling these rallies on wheat and be patient with beans but will have to be more aggressive by Tuesday in terms of selling. New research on cattle suggests lower prices into Thursday now and hogs may hold up into then.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (10/13) Thinking the trade will consolidate gains in beans and corn on Friday but we still see higher prices early next week. Cattle look lower on Friday and a dominant cycle into Oct. 26 may push the market lower the rest of the month, and we probably will stick with shorts. Hogs should be higher one more day and we will evaluate them later.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (10/12): Trade waiting on the USDA report on Thursday. Cycles the next few days are more bearish than bullish but corn and wheat are very oversold and hit key support patterns, so we have to assume they buy the news on Thursday and retrace Friday and then be higher early next week. Grains are too oversold to chase at current levels. Cattle looks lower the next few days and hogs still should recover.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11): Trade waiting on the USDA report Thursday. Could see quiet ranges but should see another day up in hogs and cattle and congestion higher for beans.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (10/10): Trade waiting on crop conditions after the Columbus Day holiday. Grains came off a bit. Not too much to add to this morning’s comments. Could see quiet ranges but should see a 2-day recovery in hogs and cattle and congestion higher for beans.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (10/9): Grains look lower Sunday but may bounce on Monday. Thinking a lot of congestive action before Thursdays USDA report. Some cycles have an upward bias next week so if grains can’t meltdown quickly from harvest pressure on Monday, we’ll want to be out of shorts. Cattle look higher a few more days and hogs are a buy on dips based on cycles.Continue reading