Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (5/12) Cycles seem lower still for grains on Friday and probably much of next week. If weather forecasts stay warm and dry, the market will probably tank next week so Friday may be the last chance to get on new grain shorts or hedges for the short-term. Cattle showing signs of bottoming but we’ll be patient and hogs probably lower to sideways on Friday.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (5/11) USDA report is out of the way and now it is matter if a flooding rain front pushing across the Midwest spooks traders. Given warm and dry in the 10 days, this last storm may not mean much. Can wheat really recover much given harvest pressure? While 9% of the crop is lost, there is still a lot of world wheat out there. Cattle cycles are weaker a few more days along with hogs but cattle is a bit overdone now.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/10) Not sure the USDA report means anything in May and the bounces for beans and corn today were healthy short-covering. We still see weaker cycles overall this week and would use any rallies to continue to add shorts. Soybeans closed higher to recover yesterday’s losses amid reports of slow planting in the Midwest and the likelihood of more delays as storms move from the Rockies to the Atlantic this week. We’ll have some strategies in the morning based on overnight action but it’s likely to be short-covering.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (5/9) Grain cycles are weak the next few days and much of next week so it’s hard to imagine anything that would push them up in a crazy way at the report. If we get short-covering, it may allow new sales or reentries as key numbers were triggered on Monday for a sale on beans and won’t not take much to do so on corn. Cattle are due for a 1-day bounce but look weaker into Friday now and hogs look lower on Tuesday and are getting too strong to sell now.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (5/8) Grain cycles are weak the next few days and much of next week so it’s hard to imagine anything that would push them up in a crazy way. Cattle may find a bottom by Monday and recover and not sure they’re done. We’re doing a countertrend trade in hogs and will hold into Tuesday.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (5/5) We exited long grains before the meltdown but didn’t reverse, as the market was too high off of the recent highs. We see weakness into early next week so there’s still time and room but will have to pick our spots carefully. Winter wheat futures posted double-digit losses on Thursday to wipe out nearly all of this week’s post-storm gains, as a crop tour forecast an average Kansas yield above the five-year average. The selling in wheat likely helped pull down corn and soybeans, but the latter two crops may have been pressured by forecasts for drier planting weather this weekend and next week. Flooding along rivers and streams in the Midwest will remain a concern for a few days. Despite the wheat yield forecasts, agronomists on the tour and elsewhere in the state said it will be a week or more before crop damage from the storm can assessed.

FOR THURSDAY: (5/4) Grains are often lower on Thursdays so it’s hard to hold them when they underperform. Will wait until the morning and move stops up tightly to protect any profits but not sure we will get upper targets for grains that we had hoped for. Cattle continue to run away at limit up and cycle highs dominate into Friday. Hogs are coming into their own on seasonal strength and we have missed the boat there.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/3) Usually we can count on grains being higher on Wednesday but cycles are rather sickly this week and we wonder if the market could just sit waiting for wheat damage reports. Still, grains look higher here but then lower into May 11-12 so we’ll want to take profits. Hogs may have trouble taking out 7500 and then pull back and cattle is too overbought to chase.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (5/2) Fun day if you were long and we were but got out too quickly although our corn exits were near the highs of the day. Assuming that grains could continue higher into Wednesday, as some cycles are inverting. Market went so far this week already, we wonder if it can go much farther to the upside.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (5/1) Corn and soybean futures closed a little lower for the day following big first-day deliveries for both crops and forecasts favoring dry planting weather next week in the Midwest. Winter wheat futures closed higher for the day and week ahead of a weekend in which freezing temperatures could threaten headed wheat in the Plains and flooding could hurt SRW wheat in the Midwest. Patterns on wheat suggest higher prices Sunday/Monday before profit-taking and seasonal pressure set in. That may pull corn up. Beans are in trouble and could break hard into Wednesday. Cattle may pull back for a few days from Monday but then seem higher into Friday and hogs are also likely to stall out near 7480 and pull back.Continue reading