Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/28) We had higher grains this week but never like to play the first day of three-day weekends although funds do and they got a bit crazy. Grain cycles look higher into the New Year and we’re OK buying pullbacks and exiting by Friday or near the open of next Tuesday. Cattle may hold up on Wednesday but look lower into the end of the year and hogs look higher all week.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (12/27) Grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday and recover next week. We usually like to favor shorts into the end of the year but it may be that we get short-covering from oversold conditions into Tuesday’s low. The Dec. 1 cattle on-feed report looked neutral to a bit negative: on feed, 99%; placed in November, 115%; marketed in November, 117%. The Dec. 1 Hogs & Pigs report was a bearish surprise: total hogs, 104%; kept for breeding, 101%; kept for market, 104%. Cattle look lower all week and hogs may have a wash-out day on Tuesday and then have nowhere to go the rest of the week.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (12/27) Grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday and recover next week. We usually like to favor shorts into the end of the year but it may be that we get short-covering from oversold conditions into Tuesday’s low. The Dec. 1 cattle on-feed report looked neutral to a bit negative: on feed, 99%; placed in November, 115%; marketed in November, 117%. The Dec. 1 Hogs & Pigs report was a bearish surprise: total hogs, 104%; kept for breeding, 101%; kept for market, 104%.

MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/27) We took partial profits at 1001 on Friday. To get the full 985 target you would have to hold over the weekend and deal with the possibility of a shift in Brazilian weather forecasts. There is a way to manage that with trailing stops and gaps up shouldn’t be indefensible.
OVERALL: The 29-day cycles are weak the next few days and we have a bias toward lower prices into the New Year. South American weather continues to turn bearish Risk is up to 1030 so we may have to put something on.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into Tuesday; recovering into Jan. 3.

FOR THURSDAY: (12/22) Thin holiday conditions make trading difficult and we can never remember winning before Christmas as stops and big ranges seem to take everyone out so we will stay out of meats–particularly because of a 11 am COF report on Friday toward the end of the trading day. We do favor short grains and will continue to sell bounces. It’s now looking like grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday and recover next week. We usually like to favor shorts into the end of the year but it may be that we get short-covering from oversold conditions into Tuesday’s low.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/21) Holiday doldrums are hitting already. Beans broke key levels today and we have to sell minor retracements, and the same is probably true for corn. Wheat seems too oversold and with the warm weather, we have to wonder what happens when the next arctic cold front hits. If we get bounces on cattle and hogs for a day or day and ½ we’ll be ready to be short into next week.Continue reading

OR TUESDAY: (12/20) Grains have a good chance for a 2-day bounce here and they are a bit oversold and we’ll use rallies to get short into the end of the week. Grains look lower the last week of the year. Patterns on cattle look complete with slight new highs and yet given the momentum, we’re reluctant to top-pick without a reversal.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (12/19) It seems that the peak of the arctic vortex is on Sunday and it if there is weather trade going on in the meats it may peak by early Monday and run out of steam and pullback. Meats also seem lower after Christmas. Grains may hold up a few more days and if see higher numbers to sell, we will have to start putting on short-term hedging and spec positions.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (12/16) We’re open to seeing grains hold up 1-3 more days before end of the year selling is likely to hit. Soybeans were higher Thursday because of good demand and hot, dry weather in Argentina. DTN says that’s to be taken seriously with demand has high as it is. Last week’s soybean export sales and shipments were bullish, and total exports running 24 percent more than a year ago. China keeps buying, with the latest sale of 132,000 metric tons supportive to the market. Last week’s corn export sales and shipments were neutral, but corn prices at the U.S. Gulf roughly 50 cents cheaper than at Brazil’s ports, the active export pace should continue well into early 2017. Corn’s main bearish concern is the size of South America’s next harvest.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (12/15) Grains should hold up into Thursday or Friday but may not come down until after Dec. 20-21. For now we have to expect a lot of sideways trade and some bidding until 371 on March corn and 1070 on Jan. beans comes in. Cattle could be higher the rest of the week and hogs sickly and haven’t fallen apart during the last few days of weakness.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/14) Grains should hold up into Thursday but may not come down until after Dec. 20-21. For now we have to expect a lot of sideways trade and some bidding until 371 on March corn and 1070 on Jan. beans comes in. Cattle could be higher the rest of the week and hogs are often up on Wednesdays and haven’t fallen apart during the last few days of weakness.Continue reading