Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) We had suggested the need to sell rallies today/Thursday but we didn’t get anything after the USDA report and we had gotten stopped out of beans on the freaky rally on Tuesday. Will be harder to chase but usually you sell the Nov. USDA report and get out before Thanksgiving and there is still time left. Still disappointing how this market has its bizarre rhythms sometimes.

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FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/9) Funds through a monkey wrench into patterns and fundamentals on Tuesday and that leaves us wondering how to trade on Wednesday, another USDA report day. Will it really mean much? Soybeans had the largest gains of the three crops amid fund buying after recent export business and higher vegetable oil markets. Corn and wheat posted modest gains, with corn finishing at a one-week high. Rain lingers in the eastern Midwest today after which dry conditions should prevail for most of the country through Thursday. The fall harvests are winding down with USDA late on Monday reporting corn harvest at 86% done and soybeans at 93%. Developing dry conditions in the central Plains are gaining attention for wheat. The condition of winter wheat in Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma slipped in Monday’s weekly crop progress report. The 6- to 10-day outlook favors warm, dry conditions for those states.

FOR TUESDAY: (11/8) Market sideways before USDA report. More inclined toward a bearish USDA on Wednesday and may not get a lot happening Tuesday. We would take partial profits if 341.50 came in corn. Cattle look lower one more day but then will be harder to press shorts. Wednesday, the USDA will update its crop production and yield numbers. Private firms expect a minor reduction a corn crop then of 15.052 billion on an average yield of 173.3 bpa. USDA currently is at 15.057 billion and 173.4 bpa. Happy Election Day. As Time Magazine put on its cover, “The End is Near” and the double entendre is particularly apt. Let’s pray for peace and prosperity from whatever new government is formed.

 

FOR MONDAY: (11/7) Expecting that harvest pressure on Sunday will continue to press grains although they are holding up fairly well. I suspect we can still be short 2-3 more days before short-covering before the USDA report hits.

The 6- to 10-day outlook favors warm, dry weather next week, which would allow for a rapid finish to the harvest, which as of Sunday was 75% done. The 75% matched the five-year average but was behind last year’s 82%.

On Tuesday, USDA will update its crop production and yield numbers. Private firms expect a minor reduction a corn crop then of 15.052 billion on an average yield of 173.3 bpa. USDA currently is at 15.057 billion and 173.4 bpa

FOR FRIDAY: (11/4) There’s a volatile cycle for Friday. Last year it went lower but we have seen it go wildly up some years so watch for unexpected news and wild ranges. Given harvest pressure, any rallies continue to need to be sold.

The 6- to 10-day outlook favors warm, dry weather next week, which would allow for a rapid finish to the harvest, which as of Sunday was 75% done. The 75% matched the five-year average but was behind last year’s 82%.

Next Tuesday, USDA will update its crop production and yield numbers. Private firms expect a minor reduction a corn crop then of 15.052 billion on an average yield of 173.3 bpa. USDA currently is at 15.057 billion and 173.4 bpa.

FOR THURSDAY: (11/3) Grains were much weaker than we feared and even if we have a stronger night session, we still think the market is in trouble. Oil had its biggest build-up of inventories in 34 years and that is not good news for bio-fuel, and crude should easily fall to 40.00. Hogs should hold up a few more days but cattle patterns look complete with a pullback possible. Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/2) Grains turned lower today after our concerns last night and broke key levels on corn with even Nov. beans finally taking out 985. We could see grains recovering for a day before harvest pressure takes over again. Hogs may finish a 2-day correction and then a buy is setting up into Friday. Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (11/1) Fund buying at the first of the month may set in but grains hardly budged on Monday and we continue to be surprised how well they have held up. Cycles peak overnight and we still would expect a setback into Wednesday but this market is tricky and we can’t get too married to what we think will happen. Hogs should hold up one more day and cattle are probably in trouble the rest of the week.

FOR MONDAY: (10/31) Harvest should gain traction the next few days as dry weather is forecast in the Midwest. That should put huge harvest pressure on grains the next few days into the end of the month. Fund position squaring at the end of the month should also be supportive and the 14-day cycle peaks over the weekend and it has been coming in as a high and seasonals are lower in November. We would jump on shorts and hedges on Sunday night. Meats are overdone and least due for a 2-3 day pullback and in case something bigger happens, we had better be short.

FOR FRIDAY: (10/28) Harvest should gain traction the next few days as dry weather is forecast then in the Midwest. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook adds rain to the western half of the Midwest next week along with above-normal temperatures. Ethanol futures rose along with the rest of the energy sector and the bio-fuel is now at a four-month high. Possible that grains may hold up one more day but then should turn down next week. Same for cattle and hogs. Lately Friday is a profit-taking day and all the markets are overbought so we are more inclined to favor the sell side by Monday for meats of it sets up.