Will Crude suddenly Soar after this month?

(1/20)     Some crude cycles suggest it could hold up into Sunday.   Crude needs to take out 7789 to confirm a temporary top. If the market does not break soon, we still could get to resistance to 82.60 and 83.33.

We looked closely at early Feb. cycles. We still have a cycle low into Jan. 30-1st and then the market should take off into late Feb.  The cycle repeats the explosive move we had last Jan and Feb and into early March.  Not sure if the fundamentals are there for a repeat of that move but crude is not falling and oil stocks are not falling despite recession fears.

We are not clear where the pullback into January will go but looking like it will be more like 7660-7600 than anything more dramatic with the next upward pattern at least getting to 9000.   Something bigger is very possible.

All of our cycles suggest lower crude prices into the end of the month and all the ETFs like USO and XLE do not look done.  We will want to get into USO at the next pullback low into late January.   .

LONGER-TERM CYCLES:

We looked at longer-term cycles and they are friendly from a low in late January to a high in early April.  For now, we are ready to throw short-term cycles out the window and continue to focus on the pattern.Continue reading

CHINA AND JAPAN’S IMPACT ON THE MARKETS.

CHINA AND JAPAN’S IMPACT ON THE MARKETS.

A few key fundamental factors overhanging the markets. China is going into its Lunar New Year this weekend and the idea is that they will be more active during this holiday, and after, and they will need more energy support crude. . It will also be tough to handle inflationary pressures once their economy opens back up. This may be a reason for the influx of investor money in commodities this week.

Japan’s failure to control the 10-year price of their 10-year bond, despite 78 billion in QE,  is giving signs that their Central Bank could break.  We also have the looming US debt ceiling crisis hanging over the market.  This has hammered the dollar with key support at 100.54 if 101.20 comes out.   All of these factors support being in Bitcoin and metals and we had noted Bitcoin cycles are due to peek into next week and gold may just not pull back enough to let us in at decent levels.   We are also at a point where a 2nd wave correction is due on stocks into the FOMC meeting.  When will it start and where can we buy stocks for a Feb. rally?

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Exciting Week in Financials Ahead.

Heavy events week with Powell’s speech on Tuesday, China CPI Weds, US CPI on Thursday, and Friday US Michigan Consumer Sentiment.   The stock market could hold up into Wednesday at the latest before taking a breather.

1)   Stocks could hold up as long as Wednesday and the upper target on the S & P futures is 3984. There do appear a few more places for entries either at the end of this week or into late January and Feb. is a better month for the market to take off and accelerate.

2)   Watch breakout above 11450 for acceleration in NQ 100.

 

In both of these cases, if this happens, we may not get the big pullback until the end of the week.

         3)  Watch the dollar index at 102.07 for a minimum pullback and temporary low

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Are Metals Giving a Buy Signal?

Are Metals Giving a Buy Signal?

We have had so many false signals on metals that we want to ignore the recent spurt this week which is mainly because China is selling dollars to prop up the Yuan and that could take the dollar index to 107.40 over the next few days.  Gold futures need to take out 1715 to issue a buy signal but they could hit 1720-30 and then turn down still as we do have the market lower next week.  Silver at best might get to 2056 and still turn down.

We are in an x-factor world now with currencies becoming rather volatile and on edge with interest rates and metals are finally getting noticed. After so many false signals we are waiting for gold to close above 1730 and then buy a pullback into early December.

Our long-term work still points to 1600 or 1500 into early December.   We do see metals coming to life during the 1st quarter of 2023.

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-Barry

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