Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (2/15) Insane day on Wednesday and not sure anyone survived. Hard to be able to dip your toe into the water now. Seems like momentum from Wednesday will peak early Thursday and then turn into Monday. Hard to chase anything, as a bit more will happen and then profit-taking will set in before the 3-day weekend.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (2/13) Volatility if back for those who have been tired with straight up but it does require full-time attention; you have to be on guard, and it negates taking much home overnight. Mondays sometimes are throw-away days so we have to see if any of the trends that start with gold and the dollar and oil today mean anything in the morning.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (2/12) We could see secondary lows for stocks on Monday and if they hold, we would expect a recovery next week from oversold conditions for stocks. Metals look lower next week and the dollar higher. Crude may be too oversold to hold now.
OVERALL: Rand Paul’s heroics could not pull-off fiscal responsibility and in the long run, it will hurt the perception of the US but since we are dealing with unbacked phony printed money and illusion that our nation works, who cares if we can drink the Kool-Aid for another 2 years and pretend that our economy really works? In the meantime, Amazon announced they are competing with Fed-Ex and UPS with a new delivery and pick-up service so we wonder when corporate America will start yelling anti-trust? Those companies are tanking.

FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) There’s a certain amount of chaos that makes us rather gun shy. We’re concerned that key numbers for stocks came in already with two more days of possible movement lower but without a decent risk/reward, hard to play now. These markets will get back to normal at some point but we’ll continue to be cautious unless cycles and patterns are crystal clear.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (2/8) Trade not liking the bond auction or the fiscal irresponsibility of the budget but the House will probably pass and probably a lame end of years of kicking the can. In the meantime, stocks are in complicated congestion pattern, and that means you get these big waves and bounces. Can’t touch overnight.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/7) Still on high-volatility alert for a few more weeks but the lowest and most extreme numbers should be in for a while and may not even come out into the March low. If the budget deal looks promising, they may quickly take the market up to 2802. Fun trading now if you have nerves of steel.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (2/6) Panic cycles can alter everything so we have to trade off of pattern. We can’t jump on the media’s panic energy or discussion of record DOW point falls, and of course we have to look at the percentage fall–and today’s fall was nothing like Oct. 1987. The Dow is only 30 stocks and we have stopped covering it for that reason. Still, we’re open for something deeper into Friday or maybe a bit longer but Tuesday may be the best day of the week for a bounce. Foreign overnight panic momentum can always feed this market so their markets are more likely to lay big eggs overnight.

S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (2/6) Computer models at the close point to support at 2584 with a bounce target of 2651 and 2688. Daily and weekly chart key targets now come in at 2520 and 2500. We should note that monthly chart parabolic support is at 2569, and it will take a monthly chart close below there for us to re-evaluate. Lower weekly chart support is all the way to 2290 if 2500 comes out. Timing suggests pressure until at least Feb. 9 but these big moves are often followed by huge congestive triangles, and the chance of a 78% bounce happening at some point. We’re more open to a bounce on Tuesday than any other day of the week and so hard to chase this market. Bounces on Tuesday suggest 2652 and 2689.

CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower into Feb. 9.

FOR MONDAY: (2/5) The Circus should continue next week with the budget ceiling pending and we can’t imagine that the Dems will be cooperative given the anger that the memo is likely to drudge up. Expect another government shutdown and maybe it will last longer into Feb. 15. The latest proposal is another month of “can-kicking.” May get a delayed reaction from Asia on Sunday to the US meltdown and the political crisis here, and we have to think that even though key support at 2740 may lead to a dead-cat bounce, it won’t be anything final.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (2/2) Employment report and the Republican secret memo end another volatile week. Cycles are still a bit edgy around government, and expect all kinds of attacks and counterattacks over the weekend, which makes us wonder if politics is about the people or who can get the next punch in. In the meantime the news networks on both sides make up stories to increase ratings and the world sees us a circus. Likely to get worse the next few days.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (2/1) Hoping for a pause on Thursday. We’re completing new cycle research and have found a key cycle into Sunday that will impact the dollar negatively and it’s supportive for stocks and crude oil.Continue reading