Crude drags grains lower

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/14) Grains failed as crude collapsed over 4.00 and dragged corn and beans lower. We are not seeing wildly bearish action for grains on Wednesday but if we get failed secondary highs, we may feel better about shorts for the rest of the week. Also need higher numbers for cattle and feeders if we are to get a better risk/reward.Continue reading

Grain cycles point higher Thursday/Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (11/8) Trade can often congest in sickly ranges before USDA on Thursday, and that makes for boring trade. If you want to gamble on higher prices on Thursday, you can nibble at long corn and beans on Wednesday night or Thursday. Need a bounce on meats to get any risk/reward to sell.Continue reading

Cycle low for grains into WASDE

FOR MONDAY: (10/8) There are more cycle lows than highs this week, and we do have Thursday’s USDA report, which looks like it will come in as a cycle low. Markets are probably sales Sunday/Monday because key numbers are in and the trade may stall.Continue reading

Stocks still look higher into next week

FOR MONDAY: (6/4) Political and economic stresses make it hard to take positions home. We wonder when Deutsche Bank will bite the dust and really destroy Europe. In the meantime, stocks still look higher into next week so the short-term traders will continue to play.Continue reading

Looking to get short crude and gold

FOR FRIDAY: (1/12) We forget that we have a holiday weekend coming up and even though there’s a lot of trading in Europe, trading will be muted on Monday. We’re going to get short crude and gold, as we see trending situations now until Jan. 24. Not clear on the dollar but will wait for the long weekend to take a position.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (1/12) The push above 2760 reminds us why we should never rush to short this market. Key resistance up to 2793.25 now. We had thought that Friday was the best day be lower but will it be much or matter? Continued failing momentum suggests they will take it down the 70 points but exhaust us in the process. We had thought that the start of the move lower is more likely tonight or Friday.
NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up. We exited with nice profits on our ETF position.
SHORT-TERM: (1/05) Thinking that the market is lower Jan. 12 and into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It does then seem like a 3-week correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower into Jan. 12; lower into Jan. 19.

Terrorism cycles still strong through next week

FOR TUESDAY: (12/26) We have a larger big picture guide for the next week. Very difficult to go into the weekend with a position, as there are often reversals with these holidays and conditions are thin and exaggerated. Three-day weekends are notorious for reversals and we always worry about weekend terrorism over Christmas, and those cycles are likely still through next week. Will advise Tuesday about plays next week but if we get a bunch of gaps and no completed patterns, then it will be difficult to play.Continue reading

Still seeing higher grain prices into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (7/6) The weekly crop condition report suggests a dip for corn and higher bean prices and wheat is on fire—literally. We hate weather markets but can see buying corn if we can buy near 400 and doubt we’ll get a retest of 980 to buy beans but will try. Still seeing higher prices into Friday but then concerned about next week. Feeders in trouble on Thursday and hogs still higher for a few more days.Continue reading

Favoring short grains into Sunday

(3/24) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend. Cattle waiting on COF report and failed to break much on Thursday but cycles into Monday suggest a strong downward reaction. Cycles are very violent the next few sessions so trade with care.Continue reading