FOR FRIDAY: (11/3) Climax day with employment report. Cycles have a lot of speculative energy so we should see big moves. Dollar would be more complete to the upside to 9556 but not sure we will get it for the ideal short into next week. Gold ideal projection for a short is at 1295-8. NQ fell enough that we don’t need to see 6190 come out before seeing 6300 and APPL beat expectations so will it be sell the fact or run NQ to the moon? Usually you can count on the latter.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (11/3) The 35-point correction is probably in progress toward 2550 but the current movement is probably a b-wave retracement, which means that it will frustrate late bears. Seems unlikely that 2579-80 will easily come in for the B-wave. Still, we’re open to another 22-point push lower from wherever it stops today into Friday and then one more new high. It’s possible that the entire 4th wave is done and new highs to 2605 won’t come next but that is not favored.
NEAR TERM: We’re running out of time to complete upside patterns. Realistically even if we hit 2600-2605, we may only expect a 110-point fall and not a 200-300 point fall but we are closer to something bigger happening.
OVERALL: After the first few weeks of November, market looks lower into Thanksgiving–and if that major target of 2600 does come in, it may set up at least a 110 point correction finally. But until then, it should be business as usual. There is a sense that volatility is going to increase and having wide swings in a choppy range would make sense.
LONGER-TERM: Cycles are intense in the world but the market continues to ignore them. At best if we are to get a pullback to 2490, it may come from 2600 and it may take more time to manifest, with December being vulnerable with the budget deficit.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Friday.
