FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/7) Everything revolves around Thursday’s British elections and the ECB and then we have FOMC coming up on June 14 and also Comey speaking on Thursday.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/7) It’s Weird Wally Wednesday, which is often a profit-taking day before rollover so day-traders can probably sell. Cycles aren’t as bearish as Tuesday so we may get decent levels. It always requires patience waiting for these breaks after a pattern completion that came in on Friday at 2439.50 and NQ 5890. The market has gone down to the first support area mentioned yesterday at 2326-7. Usually we get a bigger break and then congestion into the kind of news that’s building up into Thursday. Computer models suggest minor resistance at 2434 and major support toward at 2421.25-50. As always, they seem to find the energy to buy the dip. We’re not seeing a major reason to put on a swing short but we’re wondering if our cycles from June 14-28 will create something bigger in the pattern and we’re grappling with what that looks like if this market has a chance to still go to 2520 in July. It’s a losing bet to get too beared up and at this point a close under 2400 will be needed and then selling a secondary high.
OVERALL: Not seeing any major market weakness until June 14-28 and if that isn’t extreme, we could see 2520 by July 11-18. Still, we think congestion very likely the week of June 5-9. Not sure what kind of black swan will come to knock this market down but the cheap money printed buys stocks that go up and everyone is happy except or your average American.
WEEKLY CHART: New weekly chart projections have suggested 2520 and we thought that might be next year but the way the market is telescoping we could see 2520 this year and then 2750 next year. Too early to think of that but we have to keep the big picture in mind for you. If the market can’t fall much the last few weeks of June, we’re open to the market holding up into mid-July.
LONGER TERM: (5/26) If we see 2520 in June, then maybe only 2300 will come in with max. correction to 2150 into October. May not get the sell signal until June.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering Wednesday; lower into Thursday.
