FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/30) Month-end position squaring should help US stocks come off. Trade has to be nervous about Italy over the weekend and that will increase volatility as we move into the end of the week. Sickly congestion that’s countertrend to last week isn’t giving much to trade but there may be reasons to get long bonds in case something bigger to the upside happens.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/30) The intraday bounce on Tuesday was probably a B-wave and at least a move to 2093.75 is needed for the “c” wave lower. It may be too much to expect even 2173.50 now but not out of the question. We were clear on a low into Wednesday and then see higher prices on Thursday. We’re not clear enough into next week but it’s possible that seasonal low into Dec. 16 may still take the market down to 2173.50 and 2150 if we wait long enough and the Italian referendum on Sunday may be the next kick-start.
OVERALL: It would not take much to create a 3rd-wave acceleration to 2232 and 2250 but we are more likely to see a pullback to 2148-50 into mid-Dec. which is seasonals and then a secondary high into Christmas. After Christmas, the market looks rather vulnerable. We are starting to wonder if January will be vulnerable even if we see higher price into June.
BIG PICTURE: The market is acting like it is in a 3-of-3 expansion wave and the current projection is up to 2292 on cash and maybe 2342 on cash by 2nd quarter. Market would have to take out 2100 to turn bearish.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; higher into Thursday.
