FOR THURSDAY: (12/14) Sometimes markets aren’t logical and there’s just massive fading of the expected news and technical bounces from deeply oversold conditions. That looks like the case with metals and oil and even T-notes, and stocks are not confirming yet with NQ needing 6450. We probably will see a continuation of Wednesday’s reversals into Friday and have to chase cautiously. One gets the sense that funds are taking early Christmas profits and ready to go on vacation, and that will get more apparent into next week. The issue is whether the pattern completions can come in before the holidays or even the last week of the year.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (12/14) Failure to accelerate here is a yellow flag but the market isn’t exactly falling apart. Often the day after FOMC is down but want to see 2655 come out, we’ll be patient. Some cycles are supportive on Thursday into noon and a larger cycle is support on Friday despite Triple Witch. Key resistance up to 2688-91 would be a better completion. I suspect that the market will hold until Dec. 20-22, and seeing 2700-5.
BIG PICTURE: The larger pattern on the S & P are becoming clearer with probably a 4th wave congestion coming between 2600-2700 and then a move up to 2920. Next weekly chart cycle high is June 2018.
OVERALL: Not sure we should think correction until 2700-5 comes in and then it might not mean much. It could be 100 points. We’re running cycles for January and February and will report soon.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Dec. 15; higher into Dec. 20-22.
