FOR THURSDAY: (8/2) Not sure we missed much with FOMC. Statement was hawkish but markets weren’t too volatile and stayed within some key ranges we had seen earlier in the day. Some patterns weren’t completed to the downside, as was the case with gold and silver. Odd day. We’ll continue to wait for patterns to be completed.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (8/2) The ultimate resolution should still be to 2780-1 on cash and futures but Thursday looks higher and upper resolution to 2828-30 didn’t happen yet. Market held key cash support at 2806. Have to leave it alone until congestion finishes on Thursday and then it may be a sale going into Friday. Futures suggest the end result of the week should be a new low to 2781 but how it gets there could be complicated. Cycles give a bias toward upward congestion today. Our cycle work and patterns suggest that if a new low does come to 2781, it may be followed by a 3-wave recovery so again expecting a quick freefall Thursday beyond that level may be asking too much, and those walk-away days seem to happen more often on Fridays.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Short-covering Thursday; volatile Friday.