FOR TUESDAY: (12/13) Market is waiting on FOMC on Wednesday but is the Electoral College vote background noise that is making traders nervous? The dollar looks lower one more day and gold higher. Not seeing weak cycles for stocks on Tuesday but patterns need to go to 2230 this week. T-notes are done in a major way soon at 123.03.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY (12/13) Five waves up from the 2179. Italy vote is complete and a 34-point pullback would have to hold 2130 on March futures. That still would require a new high by Dec. 22 toward 2296 with additional resistance at 2330. It would seem that 5-wave up from the election low would be complete at 2330 and set up larger fall. For now we can still buy pullbacks to 2230 and day trade shorts from key levels. Not sure the Electoral College nonsense means a lot.
OVERALL: (12/12) Eventually we might get a 110-point correction from 2330 to 2220 and could take a few months which we need to confirm in the cycles. That means that much of the fun of the current rally will be over soon. Daily cash charts starting to project 2300 and weekly charts 2335. We have a bias for higher prices from FOMC into Dec. 22 but we’re not clear how long it will take to do the last push up to 2330. Could be as late as Jan. 7.
WEEKLY CHART: We do expect 2345 on cash next year for a new high. 2420 isn’t out of the question before this bull market ends and it takes a long time to turn an ocean liner around in so V-tops and crashes are not to be looked for and publications that steer you that direction are being too sensational.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Retracing into Thursday.
