(3/16) We had been looking for a dollar low into Friday and a metals high and we should get it, and then next week looks sharply higher for dollar and lower for metals and lower for stocks. We’re not clear on T-note patterns and cycles for now and will leave them alone.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (3/16) The breakout above 2380 confirmed what we felt intraday that the market wants to go higher the rest of the week. In the end, the bears always get trapped and now that the Dutch election isn’t going nationalistic and we only have 2 rate hikes the rest of the year, what’s there to worry about? Support is at 2375 with resistance at 2391 and 2394.00. NQ made new highs reminding us not to get top-picky with the S & P. We will assume the market will go up into Friday but will be sideways on Friday before quadruple witch and the G-20 conference over the weekend. Overall, we want to see 2321 on cash and may extend to 2308 by futures later in the month with a clearer short next week.
OVERALL: While daily stochastics have issued a sell signal, it’s possible that all we saw last week was a 4th-wave low and two more highs are needed. The move above 2385 after the FOMC is indicative of that. The time window for this is short as past March 20 we think the market is more vulnerable. This week’s low was enough to satisfy that it was a minor 4th-wave pullback and that new highs can come into next week but not a definite.
BIG PICTURE: If the market doesn’t take off this week into March 17 to new highs to 2417 — then we do favor 2321 on cash and have to be short in case more manifests. Seasonally the market is often lower the 2nd half of March. The 2520 projection for May is very clearly in the patterns now and wondering if it will happen. We see no point in top-picking.
LONGER TERM: (2/15) Still thinking an early April low and then still new highs this year and not thinking crash this year to 2520 and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% If things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Thursday.
