FOR TUESDAY: (4/4) Employment-report week is often a congestive mess with wild swings and congestion triangle patterns. It makes trading erratic and tricky and you have to take the money quickly on short swings and jaunts. We don’t want to take too much home overnight with crazy cycles. Today’s first surprise was the St. Petersburg’s metro bomb and while the news had downplayed it, the smoking gun was found on the leaks and it was President Obama’s own Susan Rice. The media is more interested in making up Putin stories than covering a real scandal. Our world has changed so much since Walter Cronkite.
BACKGROUND NOISE CONTINUING: We’re moving into a potentially intense week politically and could spill over into the markets. On the calendar is a Trump meeting with China, and we have to think that N. Korean games could heat up this week. Spring cycles suggest a repeat of the June cycle that led to the trigger of Brexit and that cycle kicks in the week of April 3. Britain is invoking Article 50 on March 29, which will lead to a 2-year transition. This cycle also suggests more revolutionary energy for France on May 7 and eventually Italy. We last saw this cycle around Brexit and it created massive moves in the market, so the week of April 3 could also produce something like that. That in connection with an intense fear cycle could lead to a major turn if there’s a trigger. There is also the start of a 7-year cycle kicking from April 2017-2024 that will increase military and technological development, and it has an 84-year synodic period. It signals unpredictable, sudden occurrences, such as May 2010’s “flash crash,” when the Dow dropped 1,000 points in 5 minutes, wiping out many small investors. This cycle is connected electricity, shock, computers and inventiveness and social activism. It will be running for the next 7 years.
All of this puts us on alert not to take a lot of positions home unless you are clear on patterns and cycles and can manage risk.
