FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/23) Even thinner volume on Wednesday and Friday likely and only day-traders pick up a few points on these days. As always, some huge flourish after the holidays but until then, not much happening.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold Dec e-mini S & P longs from 2181.25 with a 2187.50 stop. Continue taking profits near 2208 on multiples.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/23). Often you are more likely to get grinding/topping action the week of Thanksgiving than anything significant to the downside as there is no volume and computers will make money buying minor dips. At this point resistance is at 2208 and 2210 with Wednesday having the best day for a pullback and also Friday and also the next few days of next week. In the end, the safer sale is probably Monday in case holiday volume takes it up to 2217-2220 which was our original target last week. It’s too much to get beared up. If you have longs, move stops up to 2187.50 now and continue to bank more profits if we see 2208. Top-picking for a 30-40 point pullback may be more productive next week.
OVERALL: Dec. looks weak and a larger pullback is very possible to 2100 max. but more likely 2148-50 , and seasonally the market tends to be lower into Dec. 15. We’re expecting new highs next year but we probably will have a congestive mess until then. Good week for day trading and range trading. Some cycles suggest a lot of tensions in the world in December and not sure if stocks will be upset by it. Dollar closer to key resistance but need some major event to change the trend there. Key support at 2170.
BIG PICTURE: The market is acting like it is in a 3-of-3 expansion wave and the current projection is up to 2269 and 2300 into 1st quarter. Given the speculative energy out there, no one should be looking for some massive movement lower now. We saw this type of move coming last week and we thought it had meant a Hillary victory but the move was going to happen no matter what based on the speculative cycle. Market would have to take out 2100 to turn bearish.
